I DON’T envy Philip Hammond. Next week’s Budget has the potential to sow serious division in the UK Government. As a pro-Europe MP in the Conservative party, Hammond has made an enemy of himself amongst some of the more evangelical hard-line Brexiteers.
Leave.eu has started a campaign to have him deselected as a Conservative Party candidate, should there be another election. From the Tory benches there’s pressure to pull some kind of bold and ambitious spending plan out of the hat, to prove that he’s dedicated to making a success out of Brexit.
The Budget could be voted down if fewer than 10 Tory MPs rebel against the Government. If ever there was an opportunity for a coup over Brexit, this could be it. Once again, internal divisions are spilling out of the Tory party and into the lives of ordinary people who will be affected by policies made not in their own best interests, but to appease the far right of the party in government.
Hammond will be desperate to get this right. But what options has he got? There’s not a great deal of room to manoeuvre – the budget deficit is still £50 billion, despite seven years of ill-advised austerity. Sluggish wage growth coupled with high inflation means a squeeze on consumer spending. Productivity is low and Brexit is looming ominously on the horizon. Hammond’s instinct will be to proceed with caution, but one wrong move might be enough to collapse the house of cards.
My prediction is that the Chancellor will play it safe and avoid anything contentious. It’s most likely he’ll announce some policies aimed at winning back Labour swing voters – some legislation on tax avoidance perhaps, or a cut in stamp duty for first-time homeowners.
It seems the Chancellor is stuck between a rock and a hard Brexit. You can guarantee it will be ordinary people who suffer the consequences as wages are squeezed further, investment is lost, and a government sleeps at the wheel, preoccupied with internal party politics.
People in Scotland who didn’t vote for Brexit and certainly didn’t vote for a Tory government will pay the price for the economic turmoil that will ensue after the UK leaves the European Union.
While the UK Government can justify ignoring the democratically expressed will of an entire nation, they can find exemptions where it’s convenient: no special deal would be possible for Scotland, we were told, but David Davis this week announced that there would be a special City of London travel regime to protect the banking sector.
How long this government will last is anybody’s guess – but what is certain is that Scotland’s future will always be more secure in the hands of Scotland’s people.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here