THERE was a time not so long ago when hardly a day went past without a dozen newspapers reporting that Ruth Davidson had told Nicola Sturgeon to stop obsessing with independence and get on with the day job.
“We will repeat – and repeat and repeat – our demand that, instead of trying to take Scotland back into ever greater constitutional turmoil, it really is time to get on with the day job of governing Scotland.”
That’s what she wrote in early May. The days rolled by. Then the weeks. Then the months. And there was no repeating and repeating and repeating the message. Just a loud, embarrassing silence.
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And no wonder. Even Ruth Davidson hasn’t the brass neck to keep regurgitating that tired, desperate mantra. Not when her own leader, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, spends every waking minute of her day fighting frantically on the frontline of the warzone that is the British Conservative Party today.
And let’s never forget, the Brexit nightmare was not the malevolent work of Nigel Farage or some other big boy who did it and ran away. This was the result a reckless gamble by Theresa May’s predecessor, David Cameron. And lest we forget: “Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson welcomed the announcement of the EU referendum, pointing out that anyone under the age of 58 has never had a vote on the UK’s European membership.” That’s what was reported back in February 2016.
Yesterday, the same newspaper revealed the results of an explosive new poll conducted across the UK by YouGov. In a three-option transferable ballot, 50% of respondents would vote to remain in the EU; 33% would back a no-deal Brexit as their first choice; and just 17 per cent would want to strike a deal with the EU.
As the deadline for the latter looms large, the battle lines over the EU are more clearly drawn than ever before. We either stay where we are – or we jump over the cliff edge with our fingers crossed.
And in what looks to me like a game-changer, the poll also found that if the least popular option was then eliminated, Remain would carry the day by 55% to 45%.
I’ve written before in this column that I have major criticisms of the European Union and its structures. I understand where at least some of the Brexiteers are coming from, but I believe that, in contrast to the UK, the looser and more fluid EU can be challenged from within and ultimately transformed into a vehicle for continental-wide radical social change.
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But what is more important than any of that is the fundamental principle of democracy. If the people have been asked to take a momentous decision with far-reaching consequences, and subsequently change their minds as the potential impact of that decision becomes clearer, then they should be allowed to do so. And that applies as much to the future of Scotland within the UK as to the future of the UK within Europe.
We all change our minds in our daily lives, and no decision we ever make should tie us in to a lifetime of negative consequences. The idea of a binding once-in-a-lifetime decision that can never be overturned flies in the face of all human experience.
For that reason, and in the light of the events of the past couple of weeks, I would hope that the SNP will not just passively support the idea of a new EU referendum but become the main driving force to overturn the decision. Not on the grounds of breaches of electoral law, serious though they might be, but because the people have the right to change their minds.
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I’m not calling for the broader independence movement to take such a stand, because it must be open to all those who support Scottish sovereignty, irrespective of their views on Brexit and the EU. But the SNP is a coherent pro-EU party with the third-largest bloc of MPs in Westminster.
By leading the charge for a new referendum to reverse Brexit, it would demonstrate in bright colours that it is not only just a party of Scottish independence, but is also a party willing to stand up for the democratic rights of people across the UK, including those millions of Labour voters who will suffer most from the economic turmoil of a hard, no-deal Brexit.
It probably won’t go anywhere, not least because Labour have effectively surrendered. Just a few days ago, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry categorically ruled out a second referendum. Nor will a future Labour government contemplate reversing Brexit, she insisted, because “we will have to do as instructed by the British people in 2016”.
However you spin this, the British Labour Party has now hoisted the white flag and surrendered the future to Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson.
But what if Labour, under pressure from the SNP and others, were to carry out a U-turn? What if that led to a repeat EU referendum? What if Brexit were to be reversed? Wouldn’t that just undermine the drive towards Scottish independence?
That depends upon whether you believe the main purpose of independence is to stay close to the EU. That’s never been my position. Like one and half million others, I voted for independence when Brexit wasn’t even a dot on the horizon.
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If the SNP play the leading role, defeating what Tory Remainer Anna Soubry last week described as “the forces of darkness”, perhaps support for independence will subside for a bit. But maybe it will have the opposite effect and galvanise the confidence of the people of Scotland to take power into their own hands.
If the Scottish Government does the right thing now, it will win wider respect across the UK, especially from young people and Labour-voting Remainers. It could gain more allies, including – crucially – from much of the English left. And that can only help the cause of Scottish independence.
One thing is sure. Even in the admittedly unlikely event that Brexit is reversed, England will become increasingly unstable. The hardcore Brexiteers won’t run away with their tails between their legs. They will split the Tory party asunder. And they will remain a mighty and menacing force in English politics, ready to pounce again when the time is ripe.
Against that background, the cause of independence is likely to be strengthened rather than weakened. And an independent Scotland might well then become the guiding light for progressively minded people across the rest of the UK and beyond.
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