DID I dream it, or do I really recall the Better Together campaign arguing in 2014 that only a No vote would protect our place in the European Union, with all the social, economic and environmental advantages it brings?

Many of us took those dire warnings with a heavy pinch of salt even then, but looking at where things stand today, it’s crystal clear that their argument was just one big exercise in mental gymnastics to scare people from opting for independence.

Now, as Scotland looks forward to our parliamentary election in May, as parties finish writing their manifestos and candidates rehearse their best lines for hustings, we know that just weeks after that intense period of campaigning is over that critical European question will be put to the ballot. It is increasingly clear that the UK Government favours a late June date, regardless of the objections coming from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Not only will our elections risk being overshadowed in the media by coverage of the European debate, but activists and voters will have only the briefest respite from the campaign trail, meaning that electoral fatigue might result in a lower turnout from Scotland’s pro-EU voters.

We can object to this likely timescale. We can vote against it and list the reasons why it shouldn’t happen. But unfortunately we may have to live with it.

Opinion polls in Scotland show strong support for staying in the EU with 62% to 26% in one poll this week. This may lead people to think “that one’s in the bag, let’s not worry too much”. Some have suggested that if a Scottish vote to stay in is set against a UK-wide vote to leave, then we’d have the trigger point for another independence vote. I’ve even met people who seem to positively relish that prospect.

They should be very careful what they wish for.

With all these factors coming together there is a real risk of complacency both about the outcome of the EU referendum, and about its consequences for Scotland.

If that “Scotland in, UK out” scenario does unfold, I can entirely understand the argument that it would justify a second independence vote. Indeed, at this point, there’s good evidence that many people would consider voting Yes if a second Scottish independence referendum would come about. But the situation is still hypothetical, and I believe that an indyref held in these circumstances would be a very tough fight for pro-independence campaigners.

Let’s consider those “project fear” arguments which convinced some people – including those who saw the attractions of independence – to stick with the devil they knew.

They said that we wouldn’t inherit the UK’s terms of EU membership and would have to negotiate from scratch. With the UK walking out the door if the vote favours Brexit, they wouldn’t have to work hard to make that case.

They said that Scottish independence could endanger the UK’s single market, and that Scotland’s economy would lose out as a consequence. The trading conditions between post-Brexit rUK and the EU itself would certainly be at risk, and while Scotland might be able to achieve a status quo either with the EU or with the rUK, we’d be hard pressed to do both.

In addition, the No camp in a second indyref would have an additional card up their sleeve - they would be able to question the continuation of the Common Travel Area (CTA) between the Scotland, rUK, Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. It’s hard to see how the CTA would be managed with such a huge chunk of its territory outside the EU.

I argued in the 2014 referendum that independence was the best choice for Scotland, and would open up possibilities for many of the changes I and other Greens believe in. I still stand by that, and when the question comes to be put again you can expect to see me on the same side of the debate.

But in a post-Brexit world I believe that the other side’s arguments would require far less of the mental gymnastics we saw in 2014. A UK-wide vote to leave the EU would make No campaigners job easier, not ours. And if we believe the polls that show strong EU support in Scotland, we must believe those that show a much closer balance down south.

Scotland doesn’t need the dangerous Brexit-trigger to win independence – we will do it on our own terms, and in the meantime, we must protect the European Union from breakdown. We can’t afford to take anything for granted. We’ll be tired, and we’ll have spent months campaigning along party political lines. But we’ll still need to work for every vote to ensure that Scotland – and the rest of the UK – remain in Europe.