A SECOND independence referendum could be held in spring next year if the UK Government “dig its heels in” and pursues a hard Brexit, Scottish Green co-convener Patrick Harvie has said.
The pro-independence MSP suggested the halfway mark in the UK’s official two-year period of negotiations to leave the European Union (EU) was a “reasonable guess” about the timing of another ballot.
Harvie made the comments after Nicola Sturgeon explicitly ruled out staging a vote on independence in 2017 but he agreed with the First Minister that the option of staging another referendum needed to “remain on the table”.
Prime Minister Theresa May has set a deadline by the end of March for triggering the Article 50 process and starting the formal negotiation period.
Harvie told BBC Radio Scotland: “I don’t think anyone expected a second referendum to be held this year, what has been very clear is that the option needs to remain on the table, and we support that.
“That means the legislation to allow Holyrood to make that decision has to be progressed this year.”
He added that the “lack of clarity” from the UK Government over its negotiating strategy meant it is “very hard to see through the mists of Brexit” at the moment.
He told the Good Morning Scotland programme: “I think a reasonable guess at the moment might be that if Scotland chooses to have this question put again, if the UK chooses to dig its heels in and refuses to respect the way that Scotland voted to remain in the EU, then maybe at some point round about the halfway mark of the two-year Brexit negotiation period, or not long after that halfway mark, we might need to be in a position to put that question to the public.
“There is a contradiction between the 55 per cent vote in 2014 to stay in the UK and the 62 per cent vote last year to stay in the European Union. I think we need to explore the options to see if both of those votes can be respected, but if the UK Government refuses, if they refuse to budge from their hard Brexit, no special arrangements for Scotland position, then that contradiction will stand, and it may be that only the Scottish people are in a position to resolve that contradiction.”
Later, at First Minister’s Questions Harvie raised concerns about a lack of accurate information on the number of Scottish families affected by the UK Government’s new benefit cap.
He said estimates for the households affected ranged from 4,000 to 11,000, including up to 20,000 children and urged Sturgeon to consider using new welfare powers being devolved to top up reserved benefits such as child benefit.
Sturgeon said she would “look with interest” at the Scottish Greens proposals on the new welfare powers but said she was “determined” to use them to tackle child poverty.
Responding to Harvie’s forecast of a new vote on independence next year in the event of a hard Brexit being pursued by May, Labour’s Europe spokesman Lewis Macdonald said: “A hard Brexit would be bad for jobs and would confirm once and for all that the biggest threat to the Union is actually the Tories.
“However, a second independence referendum is not the answer.”
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