WEDNESDAY is Budget Day. Should we be getting excited? Probably not just yet. For we are in the Brexit Phoney War period and I expect Chancellor Hammond – a much more cautious chap than flashy George Osborne – is content to keep his fiscal powder dry for the moment.

For the economic outlook has never been more uncertain, and Hammond knows it. UK economic growth might look good compared with Europe but the forecast numbers have been revised down since the Brexit vote last June. Much worse, UK growth is being powered by a sudden – and fickle – jump in consumer borrowing, a lot of it on unsecured credit cards. When I confronted Hammond at last week’s Treasury Questions with this uncomfortable home truth, he took refuge in hoping there would be a surge in business investment this year. And pigs might fly.

The big mystery is why consumer borrowing is on the up. My take is that the surge in inflation following the crash of the pound in June has begun to affect living standards. Folk are compensating by borrowing. They feel confident to borrow again because the jobs market is relatively buoyant and house prices (which underpin most people’s wealth) are still strong. For now, that is. There is some data suggesting the rise in consumer borrowing has decelerated after Christmas. But for now, Hammond and the bonkers Tory Brexiteers can pretend everything is fine in the UK economic garden.

The Treasury has even received some extra tax revenues in the past couple of months, or at least a bit more than forecast at the time of the November Autumn Statement. Why? I think it is less the case that anything has improved in the real economy and more that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was too pessimistic when it did its sums. Anyway, the result is that Hammond might have an extra £45bn to spend between now and 2020. Then again, Warren Beatty read out the wrong envelope at the Oscars.

Assuming Hammond thinks he has some cash to play with, what will he use the money for? If he had a heart – nor a normal Tory attribute – he would use the cash to save England’s collapsing NHS. I listen to the opposition parties in Scotland prattle on about the state of the health service and education north of the Border and shake my head in wonder. Even with austerity imposed by Westminster, the Scottish Government has managed to protect and nurture our NHS and our schools and universities. Down south, we’ve seen the International Red Cross liken the collapse in health care in England to a “humanitarian crisis”.

Because of this, Theresa May and Chancellor Hammond are under mounting pressure from their own backbenchers to pump more money into the NHS and care services. I dare say Hammond will offer some Budget sweeteners to buy time. But remember that Philip Hammond remains ideologically fixated with cutting overall public spending, reducing the size of the state and eliminating the national debt. Eliminating anything, in fact, that gets in the way of private enterprise and making a profit.

Which is why the Chancellor’s ultimate solution to the English NHS and school funding crisis will be more privatisation, not more cash. Austerity still rules at the Treasury. You can see this in a pre-budget measure sneaked out last Monday from the Treasury. Spending departments have been told to find cuts (“efficiency savings”) of up to six per cent, in order to trim £3.5bn from the base budget. That includes the Treasury contribution to the Scottish budget.

Hammond’s long-term aim is to balance the budget – which means savage cuts. This is never easy, given the parlous state of the UK economy. George Osborne – always too clever for his own good – made the mistake of claiming he would balance the books on a specific date. He never did, and looked a fool for it. His successor at Number 11, dry Mr Hammond, is much more careful. He says he will balance the budget “when possible”. But don’t be fooled. Post-Brexit, Hammond wants to turn the UK into a free market, low tax haven – another Hong Kong or Singapore. To do that, public spending has to be scythed.

If anything, austerity under Hammond will be worse than under Osborne.

The ticking time bomb for Hammond is the national debt. Public sector net debt – not including public liabilities for bailing out the banks back in 2008 – hit £1.68 trillion at the end of January. That’s up by £91.7bn since the previous January and represents hefty 85.3 per cent of GDP. By the end of this parliament, the Tories will have presided over a doubling in the size of the National Debt! Of course, they blame this on Labour. But the truth is, it is the Tories who have run up the bills.

IT may seem paradoxical that we have had a decade of Tory austerity and yet public borrowing has doubled. How does that square with spending cuts and the collapse of the English NHS? The answer is simple: the UK economy is a basket case. So-called economic growth is a mirage based on perennial housing bubbles, consumer debt and the Bank of England printing money to prop up share prices (which makes upper middle class Tory-voters wealthier). Meanwhile, productivity has flat-lined since the 2008 crash and we are paying for our imports by selling UK companies and whole swathes of London to foreigners. The UK is not producing or selling enough to pay its own way. So even with public spending cuts and tax rises, Tory Chancellors have to borrow.

Why would Scots want to be part of this economic shipwreck? A disaster made ten times worse by Brexit. To save their pensions, perhaps? I have news for Scottish pensioners: Chancellor Hammond has made no bones about wanting to cut pensions too. In fact, it is his preferred way of balancing the books. He has already announced (last November) that he will “review” the current triple lock on state pensions introduced in 2012. This guarantees a minimum 2.5 per cent annual rise. Expect that guarantee to end if the Tories win the next election – highly likely given Labour’s growing ineptitude.

Of course, we can expect Hammond to come up with a few electoral goodies. He needs to assuage Tory backbenchers over the NHS and care crisis, as well as shoot a few Labour foxes. Yesterday, the Tory house media were reporting that local councils in England will get a £1.3bn emergency cash injection for social care. That’s going to be funded by the aforementioned departmental “efficiency savings”, it is robbing Peter to pay Paul. Also: watch out for the usual Budget small print. There are rumours Hammond might revive plans to cap an individual’s care costs at £72,000.

One thing more about Wednesday: ambitious Mr Hammond is the power behind May’s throne and no friend of the Three Brexiteers, Messers Johnson, Fox and Davies. It will be a cautious budget because Hammond is biding his time until HMS UK hits the inevitable Brexit rocks. Let’s hope Scotland has jumped ship long before then.