AS Theresa May took to the stage at the Scottish Conservative party conference in Glasgow last week to berate “tunnel vision nationalism”, a quiet revolution was taking place in an often forgotten part of the United Kingdom.
For the first time since the state of Northern Ireland was set up in 1921 Stormont parliament did not have a Unionist majority.
With an inbuilt Protestant majority there was a sense parties which backed the Union would always be victorious in the six counties of Northern Ireland - or at least would do so until Protestants weren’t outnumbered by Catholics.
But what happened last week was that despite Northern Ireland still having a narrow Protestant majority, Sinn Fein gained a record 27 seats, just one less than the DUP. The result sent a shock save through the political landscape and was compounded by the fact that the more moderate nationalist SDLP also saw their number rise, “It is an historic moment in that for the first time ever the Unionists parties don’t have a majority in the parliament or Assembly,” says Professor Peter Gray, of the School of History at Queen’s University, Belfast.
Gray believes sympathy for the Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness, the former deputy first minister, who is currently seriously ill, and who had stood down in protest over the handling by FM Arlene Foster of a green energy business scheme which could cost Northern Ireland taxpayers up to £500 million was among the reasons for the boost.
He also cites the party’s ability to mobilise its vote, its anti-austerity message and its drive to take speak up on equality issues and LGBT rights and believes it also successfully managed to position itself as “an opposition” to the DUP despite having shared power with them.
“In the May election last year Sinn Fein and the DUP were not criticising each other’s record in government but this time with Stormont collapsed Sinn Fein were able to fight as an opposition party, and able to pin the blame for the financial mismanagement on the DUP,” Gray points out.
The Brexit vote too in which Northern Ireland like Scotland voted to remain in the EU, played a huge part in the result.
“The stakes seemed to be higher for everyone. Even the Unionist vote was up and it is interesting to see that the pro-Brexit left-wing party People Before Profit – lost one of two seats,” he maintains.
But Gray is cautions on claims there could be a United Ireland before too long, pointing out that while there is not a pro-Union majority at Stormont, neither is there a pro-nationalist one as the smaller Alliance and Green parties hold a significant part of the centre ground and are neutral on the national question.
“In my view if there was to be a border poll tomorrow it would be lost,” he says. “But further down the road it is harder to say, it depends how damaging Brexit is to the economy, it depends what happens to the Border. There is a fear too about the rise of militant loyalism should any doubt arise over the continuation of Northern Ireland in the Union. In my view this could bring bring loyalist paramilitaries out on to the streets.”
Across town Ben Lowry, deputy editor of the Unionist supporting newspaper the News Letter, says his postbag is full with letters from readers worried about the future.
“The result of the elections has knocked Unionism for six,” he tells me. “There is a lot of nervousness. Unionists have always been afraid of demographic change but over the last decade or so it didn’t seem such an issue as the nationalist vote didn’t increase.”
He doesn’t see a border poll on the horizon but, like Gray, believes Brexit has the potential to cause major constitutional change. “The danger as I see it is for those of us who support Britain is that in the emotion of a referendum it would send people stampeding to the polls to support nationalism and that some of the centre ground, so annoyed about Brexit, would vote against the British link,” he says.
“At the moment Brexit doesn’t seem to have changed things very much, but if some of the centrist pro-Europe Alliance people start to turn against Britain then Unionists are in trouble. At a personal level I would be distraught beyond words if we were to leave the UK.”
Back in Scotland Professor Willy Maley, of Glasgow University, agrees Brexit will lead to an unravelling of the Union but that this will lead to a better relationship between the four nations of the British Isles and forge a new sense of European identity among people of the two traditions on the island of Ireland.
“I’m a great promoter of WISE – Wales, Ireland, Scotland and England – four independent republics in a new relationship,” he argues. “With Brexit religious issues which have divided people in Northern Ireland are less of an issue.
“I believe over the long term we’ll see a united Ireland, not the sort of one which may worry Ulster Protestants but a secular Republic with a strong sense of European identity.”
Ever the optimist, he is hopeful too that England will leave behind its fixation on the glory days past.
“I see the sabre rattling of empire as the last act of a desperate multi-nation state,” he says. “I think we are in the endgame for the Union. How long that is going to take I don’t know. “But I am hopeful we are heading to a “post British” era where there is a more egalitarian relationship among the four nations as independent states. I see it in those terms and I think it is a really exciting prospect.”
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