Lesley Riddoch: Forget SNP losses ... can they win a seat that was once impregnable?

Alistair Carmichael has been Lib Dem MP for the Northern Isles since 2001 and (in)famously held the seat last time round in 2015.

Days after the vote though he was forced to admit his role in leaking a Scotland Office memo designed to damage Nicola Sturgeon. Months later the former Scottish Secretary was taken to court by the Orkney Four – a small group of constituents who crowd-sourced £216,590, won two out of three legal points but failed to win the overall case or oust Carmichael as MP.

The question now is whether that debacle has seriously damaged his local credibility. From a mainland perspective the answer seems obvious. Two former SNP MPs lost the party whip for much less. But even after spending the best part of a week in his northern constituency for the fabulous Orkney Folk Festival and book events on Shetland, it’s hard to know if Carmichael will just hang on to his 817 majority, or be pipped at the post by his youthful SNP challenger, Miriam Brett.

The party divisions of Scotland have never really taken root in the close-knit communities of the Northern Isles where independents dominate local councils and the tradition of voting Liberal Democrat at parliamentary elections has survived every mainland reversal – a throwback perhaps to 1886 when Gladstone’s Liberal Government introduced the Crofting Acts.

But will old loyalties and distant events overshadow that much more recent court debacle?

Well, mebbes aye, mebbes naw.

At the 2016 Scottish elections, Lib Dem candidates won both island seats – Orkney MSP Liam McArthur said the Orkney Four’s actions had “backfired,” because voters felt Carmichael had been unfairly hounded.

But for the 10,000-plus crowdfund supporters, the shame was that four ordinary citizens (among them a Green party candidate, a student and a Labour party member) had been forced to risk bankruptcy to raise a perfectly valid question about the conduct of their MP.

But if the “Carmichael effect” isn’t predictable, the impact of a vigorous Tory challenge certainly is.

Conservative candidate Jamie Halcro Johnston will almost certainly make inroads into Carmichael’s support, because the euro-scepticism of the local fishing community is as big a problem for the pro-EU Lib Dems as it is for the SNP – even though Carmichael has tried to distance himself from his own party’s stance by signing a Scottish Fishermen’s Federation (SFF) petition welcoming Brexit. According to SFF leader Bertie Armstrong; “The whole industry, from those who go to sea through the processors to the hauliers, is united behind one simple aim – coming out of the EU and the CFP.”

That underlying anti-EU position means local SNP candidate Miriam Brett has opted not to sign. She fears the Tories will undoubtedly trade access to Scottish waters (again) for access to EU markets in Brexit talks – a particular fear among the inshore fishermen of Orkney.

She may also be aided by the SNP’s new manifesto commitment to joining the EU single market – a wording that holds open the possibility that an independent Scotland might join the “halfway house” of the EEA like the fishing nations of Iceland and Norway before or even instead of full EU membership.

So the fishing vote is also hard to call.

Of course sitting MPs get to claim credit for any developments that have occured on their watch.

So Alistair Carmichael is claiming credit for the Westminster decision to retain one emergency towing vessel in Orkney, even though there were originally two tugs, and he was part of the ConDem coalition government that initially decided to get rid of both of them.

It was the same story over ConDem plans to close either the Shetland or Stornoway, Coastguard stations – Carmichael’s coalition government threatened these vital emergency services but he is now claiming credit for saving them.

How much will local voters see through that bluster – it’s hard to say. What it really boils down to is whether an old hand is better than a young mind. And there, it’s much easier to be unequivocal.

The striking thing, after spending five days bumping into Miriam Brett on the campaign trail, is her quick grasp of complex issues that involve local, Scottish and UK Governments. Of course she did work in policy research before taking up a post as senior economic adviser to the SNP’s Westminster group. But even more impressive is the passion this 26 year-old brings to politics – she is still able to feel angry about the injustices older folk feel they have to thole. And she’s a lot closer to the experience of hard times than older and better heeled rivals.

Miriam was born and brought up in Shetland and her family were veteran Labour supporters though most have now left the party.

Her first memory of political life was Labour’s 1997 election victory. “My mum gave me ice cream for breakfast, and told me the good guys had won. It was a long and painful departure from Labour for her after the shock of the Blair years and the disappointment of Brown.”

She joined the SNP before the 2015 election infuriated by Labour’s passive acceptance of austerity and the LibDem support for the Tories.

“I was so hurt by Alastair [Carmichael’s]‘s role in the coalition. He used to speak at my High School Amnesty International group about the importance of human rights. To go from this to someone who propped up the Tories and voted for the bedroom tax was unimaginable.

“I simply don’t recognise the person I see today.”

Miriam Brett’s straight-talking certainly engages younger voters, but if elected she would become something even more unusual – the first ever female MP for the Northern Isles.

Indeed, Miriam and Labour candidate Robina Barton are the first female candidates to stand in this constituency for two decades.

And that matters.

In 1997, Norway’s first female Minister of Agriculture Gunhild Øyangen surveyed areas losing people and discovered women not men were leaving first.

The Norwegian solution was truly radical. They introduced quotas to get women into local planning and politics – “women can be a vitamin injection in the democratic process.” They paid remote mums or dads who wanted to bring up their children full time, backed places for socialising other than the sheep fank, put public money into creating challenging indoor jobs not just new fish farm jobs, and gave special funding to women setting up businesses in remote areas – “women’s ventures tend to add value to the raw materials produced by male labour.”

Quite. On Orkney, women are behind some of the brands like Orkney Ice Cream and Orkney Cheddar which add value to the basic foodstuffs island men produce. Orcadian women have also helped build the largest jewellery industry in Britain outside Birmingham and thriving knitwear chains.

Women are also prominent on Orkney and Shetland councils -- a better picture than the Western Isles which has no female councillors at all since May’s local elections.

But the Northern Isles must diversify, communities must develop and making island life attractive for women and young people must be a priority for any political representative.

So it may be tempting to focus on Alistair Carmichael’s chequered career but that’s actually beside the point. Never mind the past — who is best placed to safeguard the future of Orkney and Shetland?

Looked at that way, a Northern upset may yet be on the cards.