TORIES are probably on course to win a majority after today’s General Election, according to the latest poll from Tory peer Lord Ashcroft, who also forecasts his party making inroads into the SNP vote north of the Border.
It came as a group of regional publishers, including The National owner Newsquest, revealed the results of a nationwide poll on the eve of the election, which involved thousands of readers.
In Scotland it found growing support for Labour (up four per cent at 17 per cent), with the SNP still dominant, but down five points at 29 per cent. The Tories were unchanged on 16 per cent.
Across England and Wales, the number of people planning to vote Labour had risen since the start of the campaign, while the numbers of those planning to vote Tory had fallen.
The poll of more than 8,000 people, was carried out online in partnership with Google Surveys on newspaper websites, publisher sites and Google’s native app.
Newsquest editorial development director Toby Granville said: “The series of election surveys over the last few weeks were the result of work involving Trinity Mirror, Johnston Press and Newsquest with Google and published online across all of our brands.
“This meant we were able to build up a strong regional and national picture. The results of each survey were then put together by Trinity Mirror’s data unit with analysis and graphics for publication.
“Following on from the Fighting Fake News campaign it was another great collaboration in the regional press industry and as a result together we’ve been able to provide all our readers a much greater level of in-depth analysis and election content as a result.”
In Scotland, Ashcroft’s model suggested the Tories could make several gains from the SNP in Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Dumfries and Galloway, along with Moray and Perth and North Perthshire, seats which had previously been held by Angus Robertson and Pete Wishart respectively.
The poll also suggested a very close battle between SNP and the Tories in Banff and Buchan and in Renfrewshire East, where the two parties were said to be neck and neck.
Labour were forecast to hold Edinburgh South, their only Scottish seat at the last election, but the Liberal Democrats were predicted to lose their only Scottish seat in the Northern Isles.
According to Ashcroft, his system — known as the “combined probabilistic model” — which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimated 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64.
That figure is up from four, as recorded in the previous update last Friday.
His polling system – known as the Ashcroft Model – deals with probabilities and not predictions, he said, which meant the actual result could fall either side of the estimates, much the same as with every other polling method.
He said: “However, this central estimate, based on an update survey conducted over the weekend, combines the data from three different turnout scenarios: including all those who currently say they will vote on Thursday (giving a Conservative majority of 70); including all those who say they voted in the EU referendum (a Conservative majority of 48); and assuming turnout matches that of the 2015 election (a Conservative majority of 78).
“In the 2015 turnout scenario, for example, the model estimates that the greatest probability is a majority between 60 and 79 (34.8 per cent), followed by a majority of 80 to 99 (27.1 per cent); it also finds a 22.4 per cent probability of a Conservative majority over 100.
“The higher turnout scenarios, meanwhile, estimate a lower range of majorities.”
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