A TRANSITIONAL post-Brexit deal between Britain and the EU could breathe new life into debates about the future of any independence referendum and whether or not Scotland should be in the bloc, according to an expert on European politics and policy.
Chancellor Philip Hammond said he expected such a deal to be completed within three years of the UK leaving the European Union, and writing in The National Dr Kirsty Hughes, director of the Scottish Centre on European Relations, said it could provide a "straightforward" path into the EU as a full member.
"A bespoke, standstill UK transition via both single market and customs union means the argument that it is much easier for an independent Scotland to transit into the EEA not the EU would no longer hold," she writes. "The EU route would look fairly straightforward."
Hammond said trade deals with third countries may not come into force during the transitional period, but claimed there was a “broad consensus” that treaty-based arrangements with the EU would be in force by the next scheduled general election in 2022. He said “many things will look similar” on the first day after leaving the bloc in March 2019, and hoped goods would flow across the border between the EU and Britain in “much the same way as they do now” during the period.
Hammond told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “There will be a process between the date we leave the European Union and the date on which the new treaty-based arrangements between the UK and the European Union, which we hope and expect to negotiate, come into force.”
Hammond did not say how long it would take to put the “necessary arrangements in place”, but said: “People have talked about a year, two years, maybe three years.”
“I think there’s a broad consensus that this process has to be completed by the scheduled time of the next General Election, which is in June 2022.”
He said there was a “broad acceptance” in the Cabinet for a transitional period after March 2019. The Chancellor said he recognised it may “take some time” to “negotiate trade deals with third countries” following claims by former EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht that the UK would not be able to strike a trade deal with the US before it has left the EU or during a transitional period.
Immigration Minister Brandon Lewis said on Thursday that free movement of labour would end when Britain leaves the EU, but Hammond said there would be a registration system for people coming to work in the UK after Brexit, during the transitional period.
European Commission spokesman Alexander Winterstein said chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier’s view was that “once you know where you are going, you can also consider the modalities of getting there”.
“But one thing at a time. At this point in time we are about to discuss the specifics of separation and once this is done to the satisfaction of everyone, we may move to the second step,” he added.
Hughes said a “standstill” Brexit transition encompassing the single market and customs union, which the Scottish Government had suggested as a final UK deal, made arguments about how an independent Scotland could re-join the EU much easier.
She said: If a second independence referendum were held in 2020 for instance, and the UK did not complete its standstill transition until 2022, then the chances of Scotland — if it voted yes to independence — having a smooth transition to becoming an EU member state would go up sharply.”
SNP Consumer Affairs Spokesperson Patricia Gibson, added that the Government was clueless about what the next few years could bring: “That the Chancellor and Immigration Minister cannot agree on key issues like the free movement of labour illustrates the confusion and lack of leadership at the heart of the UK Government.
“They need to get their act together and at least agree a coherent way forward, if they are to deliver anything positive through Brexit negotiations.”
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