POTENTIALLY devastating impacts from erosion and climate change on Scotland’s coastline affecting land and property worth up to £400 million have come to light in a study looking at maps dating back to the 1890s.
Experts from the Scottish Government, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the University of Glasgow studied the maps showing old coastlines, to see how they had changed over the last 120 years.
Using more than 2,000 of the maps and one million data points to make its predictions, the Dynamic Coast – Scotland’s National Coastal Change Assessment (NCCA), identifies past erosion and growth rates, and projects the data forward to show the potential change to Scotland’s coastline.
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The map is available online and clearly shows areas the scientists expect to be eroded and lost by 2050.
Many stretches of the country’s east coast – for example, Montrose Bay, Barry Links near Carnoustie, land north of Aberdeen, and at Prestonpans near Edinburgh – have the red blotches which indicate they will be seriously impacted by erosion.
Areas of Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles show similar predicted impacts, and at Islay in the southern Inner Hebrides there are signs that the island’s airport could be under threat.
Publication of the new mapping brought a warning from Professor Jim Hansom, the principal researcher on the project from the University of Glasgow, that action is needed to adapt to the predicted changes.
He said: “Since the 1970s the extent of erosion is up 39 per cent, the erosion rate has doubled and the accretion extent – the growth of sediment deposition – is down 22 per cent.
“This is what we’d expect with climate change. That means we are seeing a net loss of our coastline. The clock is ticking and we need to start adapting to avoid unnecessary costs.”
Professor Robert Furness, chair of SNH’s Scientific Advisory Committee, said: “Our research shows there is a lot of work to be done to protect Scotland’s coastal infrastructure.
“Fortunately, about £13 billion-worth of property, roads and other infrastructure is already protected by natural features such as beaches and dunes, with another £5bn-worth lying behind engineered defences.
“So nature itself protects many massively valuable assets.
“However, we must also be aware that £400m-worth of property, roads and infrastructure lies along coastlines that could be affected by erosion by 2050.
“Our mission now is to ensure we do all we can to protect these areas.”
The map was launched at a special event in St Andrews by Environment Secretary Roseanna Cunningham.
She said: “Since the 1970s the rate of coastal erosion has doubled, and that pace will not slow down anytime soon. In fact, it will probably get worse and faster.
“The Dynamic Coast tool is a great new innovation that could help protect existing infrastructure and heritage sites from significant environmental change and damage.
“More than 9,000 buildings, 500km of road, 60km of rail track, 300km of water supply lines and vital airports runways, such as Islay, are protected by natural defences. However, some of these already face serious damage and it’s vital that local authorities, transport agencies and other planning bodies investigate how they can work together to manage coastal change before it’s too late. Tools such as this will enable them to do just that.”
The NCCA is led and managed by the Scottish Government and SNH and the research was carried out by the University of Glasgow.
The research is funded by CREW (the Centre for Expertise in Water), the Government-funded agency formed by Aberdeen’s James Hutton Institute and Scottish universities.
The new mapping can be seen online at www.dynamiccoast.com
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