CAN we trust the GERS figures?
I’ve never been happy with the notional VAT receipts assigned to Scotland, which come in at just over £10 billion, or a fifth of domestic tax income. In Ireland the figure is circa £11bn, 10 per cent more. Are some companies paying their Scottish-accrued VAT at a UK level? Bet you indy Scotland suddenly generates more VAT overnight.
Or take the latest North Sea oil and gas tax revenues — a lowly £208m in 2016-17. It is the recent fall in North Sea receipts that has turned — supposedly — Scotland’s traditional strong public accounts from black to deepest red. But income is a function of the taxes actually levied. Oil prices averaged circa $41 per barrel last year yet (thanks to productivity gains) the unit cost of a barrel in the North Sea sector has dropped to around $16. Somebody’s making cash and more of it would go to an independent Scotland — precisely why we need to manage our own affairs.
READ MORE: Michelle Rodger: GERS publication can't teach us much about an independent Scotland
Even so, is Scotland’s public deficit simply too big? The Fraser of Allander institute — created originally by Hugh Fraser, an entrepreneurial Scot Nat — claims the percentage gap between the Scottish and UK deficits is now the widest on record. However, that assumes an indy Scottish Government funds the pensions of folk who already paid their national insurance contributions to the UK Treasury. But the Treasury is legally bound to pay those pensions regardless. Take that into account and Scottish deficit is manageable.
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