A PRO-Scottish independence activist who has studied extensively in Spain has forecast a Yes vote in Sunday’s Catalan independence referendum, although he said Catalonia would not “instantly” become independent.

Nick Hutcheon, who holds a PhD on Basque nationalism, said Catalans would be emboldened by the “unprecedented global attention” their exposure of Spain’s “chauvinistic authoritarianism” had given them.

He told The National he had been shocked by how severely the Spanish state had dealt with the forthcoming poll: “The Spanish government just needed to stick to the line that the referendum is illegal/anti-constitutional and encourage people in Catalonia who oppose Catalan independence not to take part; thus, rendering a Yes landslide meaningless and nothing more than a waste of time and money.

“Instead, their actions have turned an issue of Catalan national rights into one of civil rights, which should concern everyone in the Spanish state.”

Hutcheon, from Linlithgow, West Lothian, said that what Catalonia was going through now, the Basque Country has been going through for decades.

“Unlike the rest of the Spanish state, the transition to democracy which followed the death of General Franco in 1975 was a turbulent period in the Basque Country and things have barely settled since,” he said. “Hundreds of activists belonging to the Basque independence movement remain in prison, many on the dubious grounds of ‘glorifying terrorism’ ... political parties have been banned ... newspapers down ... But this approach has the support of many Spanish people, even those who consider themselves left-leaning.

“The fact is that a very large proportion of the Spanish population think that the Basque Country and Catalonia have too much autonomy already ... If only Spain could properly recognise that it is a multicultural, multinational, multilingual state and not one nation ‘una, grande y libre’, as Franco used to say. But that seems a hopeless prospect now. The Spanish state is dictating to the people of Catalonia who and what they are and who and what they are allowed to be.”

He said the crisis was heading towards a long and bitter stalemate, and added: “There will almost certainly be a Yes vote on Sunday, but Catalonia will not become independent as a result – not instantly anyway.

“However, Catalan nationalists have succeeded in exposing the chauvinistic authoritarianism that continues to exist within the Spanish state ... and have brought unprecedented global attention to their cause. That will embolden them. The question is whether that provokes the Spanish state to adopt even more repressive measures ... or whether it seeks to find compromise ... We’ll see.”