A MAJOR research exercise that may supply the key to winning a second independence referendum is to be carried out early next year.
The study will gather opinions about the country’s constitutional future from the largest number of people in Scotland since the September 2014 ballot.
They will be asked when they would be ready to vote again on the issue, what circumstances would make them ready to do so, and what factors would motivate them to move from No to Yes.
The survey will question between 2000 and 3000 people – two to three times the sample size of most public opinion polls – and is being commissioned by the Scottish Independence Convention (SIC).
In the 2014 referendum, 45 per cent of voters supported independence and 55 per cent voted against.
One of the key aspects of the new research will be to identify which groups of No voters are most likely to change their minds.
The work will be carried out by a team at Heriot-Watt University, which has already done some research for the SIC, concentrating on small groups of voters.
Robin McAlpine, director of Common Weal and a member of the SIC, told The National: “One of the crucial things will be finding out which group of people is most likely to change.
“My feeling is that some pensioners on lower incomes who voted No last time might be ready to switch next time, as might women public-sector workers, who again last time tended to be more likely to vote No.
“Sometimes these groups voted No reluctantly, even feeling guilty about doing so.”
McAlpine added: “Even with the qualitative work we have commissioned so far, I feel more equipped with a sense of what we have to do to win next time.”
McAlpine added that commissioning the new research study was possible thanks largely to two donors coming forward to the SIC with pledges of £5000 each after hearing about the results of the previous focus group work.
The development comes as about 1800 people attended the SIC’s Build 2 conference in Edinburgh’s Usher Hall on Saturday.
Former First Minister Alex Salmond gave one of the main addresses, saying Westminster politics was “decaying before our eyes” as he issued a rallying cry to independence supporters.
He also told those gathered the timing had “never looked better” for the cause.
The Build: Bridges to Indy event also heard from Anna Arque, a leading Catalan independence activist; Scottish social security minister Jeane Freeman; and Lesley Riddoch, an SIC co-vice-convenor.
Former SNP MP George Kerevan, MSP Ivan McKee, and Jonathon Shafi, co-founder of the Radical Independence Campaign, were among the other speakers at the day-long event.
Addressing the audience, Salmond said: “Obviously our strength is great: look around the hall, feel our strength as a movement, but also understand the weakness of our opponents.
“I’ve been active in politics for 30 years, elected politics, and I’ve never seen the British state in a state of more disorientation and chaos. We’re Jonny no mates in Europe, not a single friend across the continent.
“The structures of Westminster politics are decaying before our eyes. So this is a matter not just of our strength but their weakness. That also dictates the timing of the campaign, and that is another factor for us to consider.
“I would say the timing has never looked better for the national cause of Scotland.”
Salmond added: “In that case the referendum must be held at the point of hard Brexit or at the point of transitional agreement beyond hard Brexit.”
Such a position would offer an “island of certainty in a sea of confusion and that would be of enormous value in winning the next independence referendum”, he said.
Topics covered at the conference included currency, with a separate Scottish pound being the most popular choice for an independent Scotland; the potential of closer partnership between an independent Scotland and other North Atlantic countries such as Iceland and the Scandinavian countries; and how to engage women and young and older voters.
The Scottish Greens and Scottish Socialist Parties were also represented, with the former’s co-convenor Maggie Chapman addressing the audience.
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