ALL week The National has been revealing exclusive snippets of the much-anticipated Growth Report on the economic challenges for an independent Scotland.
Throughout the entire 18-month process, our readers have been the best informed in Scotland. You probably know much of this already. But yesterday the SNP’s 354-page document was published in full with its 50 recommendations.
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Chaired by Andrew Wilson, the Growth Commission has released a report aimed at allaying some of the fears raised by the prospect of an independent Scotland. It does so by drawing upon dozens of examples of other small countries and by addressing some of the arguments used against independence during the previous campaign in 2014.
Here are the key findings.
CURRENCY
Perhaps the biggest stumbling block of the previous campaign was the struggle to fully articulate what currency an independent Scotland would use.
The Growth Report has recommended that Scotland keep the pound – at least for a transitional period and, crucially, not in a currency union with the rest of the UK. It would, of course, mean that monetary policy and the setting of interest rates would be dictated by the Bank of England. This option provides greater stability than others on the table and will allow Scotland the time to meet the Growth Report’s six tests – such as the establishment of a central bank, stable public finances and business certainty – before moving to its own currency.
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CENTRAL BANK
Strongly linked to currency, especially if Scotland is to have its own currency one day, is a strong central bank.
The report works on the assumption that most banks may move their HQs out of Scotland in the event of a Yes vote and recommends that a Scottish central bank is created to be a lender of last resort and to hold deposits. Checks and balances on the central bank would be provided by a financial regulator, much like what happens in the UK system.
THE THREE Ps
Population, participation and productivity – the three ingredients required to set an independent Scotland off on a sound financial footing.
Population growth would be achieved with an open immigration policy, in contrast to the “UK Tory government’s hostile approach”. According to the report, the 429,000 non-UK nationals currently living in Scotland make a net contribution of £1.3 billion per year. Population growth driven by an open immigration policy would bring in even more.
The second P, Participation relates to addressing society’s inequalities, including tackling the gender pay gap and raising employment figures, while productivity would be improved by employing a long-term approach to driving up exports.
DEBT
An “Annual Solidarity Payment” is put forward by the report, stressing the importance of an independent Scotland honouring its historic commitment to the UK’s existing national debts, as well as its commitments to overseas aid.
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A figure of £5bn per year is suggested, which would be offset by a rise in GDP, which itself would be boosted by addressing the three Ps covered in the previous section.
DEFICIT
For Scotland’s deficit – the difference between public revenue and spending – the commission says the Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland (GERS) report provides “a helpful starting point”.
It says while the 2016-17 deficit is 8.3% of GDP, OBR forecasts suggests this would fall to 7.1% by 202-22 – the working timescale taken in the report for when Scotland becomes independent. However, taking into account savings from defence and other UK policies Scotland would not contribute to, the deficit would fall to 5.5% of GDP by the first year of independence.
OIL
The North Sea has not been a major focus of the report. There is a fear that, like in 2014, an over-reliance on oil in any argument for independence might backfire given its price’s propensity to fluctuate. Instead, the commodity is to be treated as a bonus, with all profits to be invested for future generations.
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