AS always, the annual release of the GERS figures sparked frenzied debate.
In a blog analysing the figures, Strathclyde University’s Fraser of Allander institute urged caution. They said the number provided a "pretty accurate picture" of where we are just now, but would tell readers little about what the economics of an independent Scotland might look like.
“The GERS figures present the most reasonable approximation to help us understand the nature and extent of public spending and revenue in Scotland in the latest financial year.
“It is important to remember that GERS takes the current constitutional settlement as given. If the very purpose of independence is to take different choices about the type of economy and society that we live in, then a set of accounts based upon the current constitutional settlement and policy priorities will tell us little about the long-term finances of an independent Scotland.
“But GERS does provide a pretty accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2018. So in doing so, today’s numbers set the starting point for a discussion about the immediate choices and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating new fiscal arrangements”
Richard Murphy, Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London, however, said the figures were "crap".
The academic said: "According to the data Scotland is now doing very slightly better than the whole of the UK at the time of the 2008 financial crisis. That, however, is nonsense. If the data was produced correctly what it would show is that Scotland is doing better than most parts of the UK but is doing vastly worse, as is everywhere else, than the south-east of England, including London.
“The divide is not between Scotland and the rest of the UK, as all the GERS charts imply, but is instead between the south-east of England and the rest of the UK.”
Tracy Black (above), CBI Scotland Director, said the new statistics showed that things were going in the right direction, though much could still be done to help improve the lot of Scotland's businesses.
"The Scottish GERS figures show that public finances are continuing to move in the right direction," she said. "An uptick in oil revenues has had a positive effect, due to higher oil prices, however Scotland still has room to improve its fiscal deficit compared with the UK as a whole.
“Only by supporting the private sector to grow the Scottish economy can we deliver the sustainable public services we all want for Scotland. Against a backdrop of Brexit uncertainty, we need a relentless focus on the fundamentals – boosting productivity and safeguarding Scotland’s competitiveness.”
Mike Tholen, Oil & Gas UK upstream policy director, said the figures laid bare the devastating impact of the downturn in oil price over the last few years.
He said: “This evidences the striking transformation of the UK’s oil and gas industry since the downturn. Improvements to operational efficiency, careful management of costs and a stable fiscal regime have ensured it is better placed to weather volatility in international oil markets. This golden formula must now be maintained as we look to maximise economic recovery.”
Finance secretary Derek Mackay (above) was upbeat: "Today's figures show overall revenue in Scotland reaching £60 billion for the first time ever, underlining the fact that we have a productive and growing economy, despite the UK Government's London centric economic policies.
"Meanwhile, Scottish exports of goods have increased by 12% over the past year – the fastest rate of growth of any nation in the UK – with huge potential for further expansion in key overseas markets.
"However, that export success and wider potential is directly threatened by the UK Government's drive to take Scotland out of the world's largest single market, which is around eight times bigger than the UK market alone. That poses a huge risk to Scottish jobs, investment and living standards, which is why we will do all we can to secure the least damaging Brexit possible."
But Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard said: “These figures show that the real change Scotland needs isn’t to leave the UK – it’s a Labour government willing to end austerity and invest instead.
“People across Scotland are sick and tired of austerity – and these figures show that the SNP’s plans for independence would mean unprecedented levels of austerity for Scotland."
The Scottish LibDem leader Willie Rennie said the numbers were "another cruel blow to the Nationalists, coming from their own government".
He added: “Whichever way you look at it, under nationalist plans all the good things we all want to do in Scotland would be under threat because of funding cuts. Investing in people through education and mental health would be harder under independence.”
Scottish Tory shadow finance secretary Murdo Fraser (above) said GERS made clear the "union dividend" that meant every man, woman and child in Scotland received an extra £1576 in public spending.
"For a family of four, that’s more than £6000 in additional public spending," he pointed out.
“If Scotland was to be ripped out the UK, this spending would be slashed drastically, meaning schools, hospitals and infrastructure would be hit.”
Scottish Greens co-convenor Patrick Harvie wasn't pleased with the upturn in the oil revenues: “Here we have another reminder that the Scottish economy is still too focussed on oil and gas extraction instead of making the needed transition to clean and sustainable renewable sources of energy.
“While other parties use this annual publication as justification for how Scotland couldn’t be a small, successful independent country, or how great the SNP government thinks it is; they’d do well to remember that both our prosperity and our climate depends on moving to a clean economy.”
Scottish Socialist Party national spokesman Colin Fox didn't share the SNP's optimism. He said: “Scotland's economy is emphatically not 'on the right trajectory' if you are employed on a zero hour contract, living on poverty wages, waiting years for a decent home or looking to live in a country without chronically low levels of productivity or investment.
“These figures again demonstrate that Scotland's political leaders are incapable of unleashing the enormous potential of its people and natural resources."
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