Keith Brown on his plans as Scotland waits for indyref2

KB: National Assemblies have been a policy discussion forum for the SNP. It is the main means the party has discussed policy prior to being the subject of resolutions, branch and so on [to conference].

What we have with the Growth Commission is a really exciting proposition for debate, not just within the SNP but the wider Yes movement and wider society as well. So [the National Assembly] is to have that debate about the Growth Commission. We’ve had a fantastic response to it. It’s also given us the chance to reassert the why of independence.

There has been a lot of discussion about when a referendum might be, but we want to reassert the reasons why independence is so important.

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The Growth Commission will give us a chance to touch on those things. If there is any doubt, then this should take away any doubt, that what the SNP is about is independence and this is us discussing independence.

Q: So these National Assembly meetings are a chance for members to discuss independence?

KB: Yes.

Q: There has been some criticism including from figures inside the party that the Growth Commission is not being debated at the October conference.

KB: It is purely a question of timetable. A number of people in the party were saying “we do not want to be confronting resolutions or decisions prior to having a debate about it”.

So the debate is going to take place and the time for resolutions will have gone by the time we have these discussions. We have to have the debate first, but then of course there is the opportunity first of all for the National Assembly …to report back to the National Executive Committee and in order to make any aspect of it policy it would have to go back to conference or potentially National Council.

And also, it is always open to individual branches and other organisations in the SNP to propose resolutions on that …

I think we would have been heavily criticised if we had tried to come to conclusions on these things [the Growth Commission findings and recommendations] before the debate had taken place among party members. I think this is exactly the right way to do it.

Q: Cynics might say the National Assemblies have been organised to give members something to do in the absence of a referendum campaign, something to appease members.

KB: It’s not an either or. I think party members want to be active in a campaign for independence but they want to discuss it as well and the Growth Commission has thrown up lots of issues to discuss. Members want to campaign for independence, and they also want to be armed with the right arguments as well and they want to be involved in a debate.

Q: Coming to the Growth Commission and its critics. What do you think of the position that an independent Scotland should have its own currency from day one?

KB: During the depute leadership contest I didn’t propose a particular view on the Growth Commission. Also my role will be to host the National Assemblies.

The Growth Commission is a very important contribution, a serious body of work and we want to hear what party members have to say, rather than me giving my view.

Q: Support for independence has held steady at 45%. What are your specific plans to build support for independence and win over No voters?

KB: We are producing new campaign materials. We will be putting independence front and centre of the campaigning we do.

We have to recognise that there has been an uptake in activity. I am speaking to local Yes groups, I am speaking to Yes organisations, the national Yes Registry, the SSP, the Scottish Independence Convention, to see how we can move things forward.

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We have to underline the rationale for independence. In that regard I think the study that came out earlier this year, which for the first time showed more people thought our economy would be better under independence than in the Union, will be front and centre.

So it will be about street work, campaigning, talking to people on the doorstep, talking to people on the telephone. We will also be talking to people who moved from No to Yes and seeing how we can work with them to encourage others, especially in the unfolding disaster that Brexit is, to move from a No to a Yes position, and dialling up on that.

As someone who joined the party when we were getting 12% in the polls, and when support for independence was roughly the same, mid-to-high 40s is a pretty good position to be in and we want to improve on that.

We are seeing an uptake in activity partly to do with the power grab issue and we are having a conversation now with the wider Yes movement to see what else we can do.

Q: During the depute leadership contest you said there could be in an independence referendum in one or two years. Do you still think that?

KB: What I said then is that we don’t know when it’s going to be. What Nicola Sturgeon has said is that we will have to let people know. People will have to see what the deal is on Brexit and that seems to be a moveable feast.

Beyond that we can’t say when it will be so we have to keep working as if we are in that campaign now. I can’t give you a date.

Q: But you said one or two years. Do you still think it could be one or two years?

KB: It could be one year or two years and we have to be ready for it and I remain of that view, yes.

Q: So you still think it could be one or two years.

KB: The point I made at that time was that whether it is in one year or two years we have to get ready for it now. We can’t wait.

Q: You are saying it could be one or two years, but are you also saying it could be five years?

KB: No, I’m not saying that. The point is I don’t know, but the important thing is to keep working for it and to ratchet up that activity.

Q: Alex Neil said the other day that the First Minister should say we are not going to have a referendum until after 2021, that she should make that position clear and concentrate on getting the best deal on Brexit or deal with the consequences if there is no deal, and go into the 2021 Holyrood election campaigning for independence and a second referendum. What would you say to that?

KB: Alex Neil has been more sanguine about Brexit than I’ve ever been. You can foresee a possibility where we have a no deal on Brexit.

There is already talk of stockpiling medicines, of rationing, of massive queues at the Border. It raises a whole host of scenarios and the one thing you don’t want to do is to rule out the possibility of presenting the people of Scotland with a better alternative. I think ruling it out is not the right thing to do.

Q: What if the First Minister calls an independence referendum in the next year or so, writes to the Prime Minister for a section 30 order and again the Prime Minister refuses; what can the First Minister do?

KB: We have to wait and see what develops and if that happens, if a referendum is requested and denied.

The situation at Westminster is extremely volatile. The simple fact is we have a mandate. We went into an election in 2016 saying in certain circumstances we would reserve the right to hold a referendum under [certain] circumstances – one being if Scotland was taken out of the EU against its will.

There has been a fundamental change to the devolution settlement by the power grab which has taken place and that is a material change in circumstances. So you have those, then you have the vote in the Scottish Parliament [in favour of a referendum] and if you needed a third one you have the SNP winning an outright majority of Scottish seats at Westminster last year.

So there is every legitimacy to the mandate that we have. The challenge then is between those who believe in democratic legitimacy and those that don’t. And I think that what you would see in that circumstance is a split not just between those who support independence and those who support the Union, but those who support Scotland’s right to choose.

There would not be legitimacy on the UK Government’s part to frustrate the Scottish democratically elected demand for a new independence referendum, but we will have to wait and see how things develop.

Q: But they rejected the request before and, especially with the DUP now propping up May’s government, the chances are that any Section 30 request would be turned down. So have you got a Plan B if the PM does reject it?

KB: I would think and I would hope that they will have seen what happened in relation to the power grab. The SNP put on 8000 new members when it was seen that the Westminster Government was acting unreasonably and against the interests of the people of Scotland.

I would hope that would be a lesson to them. We would have to face that situation if we came to it, but let’s see where we are with regard to the decision Nicola Sturgeon makes in terms of a referendum.

Q: When do you think she will make that decision? Will she keep to her timetable of this autumn?

KB: She has said she will make a decision this autumn, and that she wanted to see the deal on Brexit. That deal will have to be produced in October as there has to be time for the 27 different member states to ratify it. There is talk this week that it will be November.

But she has said, quite rightly, that we have to allow people in Scotland to see what the nature of the Brexit deal is, and indeed if there is a deal, and take a decision at that time.

Q: Will she keep to this timetable?

KB: She has said she wants to see what the deal is, if there is deal, and she has not said anything different to me or to anyone else. I don’t think she’ll be shifting the timetable. Whether the timetable shifts when they actually create a deal, I don’t know. Nothing can be predicted about the way this Brexit disaster is unfolding … even though we are now just seven months away from exiting the EU.

Q: If a second independence referendum is called, the request rejected, would the SNP or Scottish Government rule out calling a Holyrood election?

KB: We’ve said since 2014 that the gold standard for achieving independence is through a referendum agreed with Westminster. That remains the preferred method for achieving independence.

I’ve heard no suggestions about calling an early [election] and it is not entirely straightforward to do that because of the fixed-term parliament. Our intention is to have a referendum on independence.

Q: In terms of a possible General Election, the SNP will face a challenge from Labour in the central belt, and the Tories in the north-east. How do you successfully fight two different parties?

KB: We have done that successfully in the past and the consistent message we have across urban and rural areas is that the SNP is the party that will stand up not just for Scotland but for each area. We have to make sure we are seen as the champion for each area again and will fight for vital local interests.

Q: Jeremy Corbyn is up in Scotland this week, visiting marginals in the central belt. Are you concerned about a possible Corbyn bounce at a new General Election?

KB: Who knows what can happen before an election, but I don’t see any evidence of it.

The Labour party in my own area is virtually moribund and that is true in many parts of Scotland.

Corbyn was asked repeatedly this week whether the UK would be better or worse off in or out of the EU, and he could not answer this question. I think that is losing him support.

At a time when the fragmented Tory party is fighting like cats and dogs you would have expected Corbyn to be doing so much better. You should never be complacent in politics but the Labour party is lacking credibility; it’s not the official opposition in Holyrood.

And if you look at the tactics, Corbyn believes trying to take back SNP seats will be key to Labour holding power at Westminster. If he targeted Tory seats and got them, Labour would have one more of their own and one fewer of the Tories.

So it is a very odd strategy that is being followed by the Labour party and I don’t think it’s going to pay them much of dividends.

Q: Are you confident about getting the 21 seats you lost last year?

KB: It is possible, apart from the fact we are doing well in the opinion polls, both in terms of Westminster and Holyrood, there is the situation that things are much more changeable now in Scotland. In the past there was a solid block of safe Labour seats – that is no longer the case and those seats are there to be won back. We have a bigger role – to win independence for Scotland – but in any electoral contest we will try to maximise our representation.

Q: What would be your key message in a new General Election?

KB: There are certain things you can predict, and we would be saying the SNP is the party that stands up for Scotland. Whether it was the [Westminster] walkout or the consistent arguments made by SNP MPs in the House of Commons or some of the fantastic performances by Ian Blackford and his colleagues, the SNP will be seen as the party that stands up for Scotland, that is crucial. Beyond that it is hard to predict what will be the key issues as we could be facing an absolutely disastrous situation with Brexit.

We could be facing shortages, increased inflation, job losses through a no-deal Brexit.

Q: The GERS figures suggest the Scottish economy is improving, but there is still a notional deficit. What could improve Scottish finances further?

KB: Independence would be a concrete step in improving Scotland’s finances and I think the Growth Commission underlines that. It is still the case that 71% of the taxes we pay go down south and I think we could make far better use of that revenue if it were spent in Scotland. Money raised in Scotland should be spent in Scotland.

If things are as bad as some of the Unionists say, then what does that say about the Union? GERS doesn’t say anything about independence but it does say what Scotland is like under the Union and how well it is serving Scotland. Do we want to be contributing towards a £200 billion Trident which we don’t want? There are some things that can be done and are being done by the Scottish Government now to try and improve the situation. We have some of the lowest unemployment figures I can remember, some of the highest employment figures.

Tourism is absolutely booming, the creative industry [is thriving]. We have to do more of that and play to our strengths. But we are seeing shortages in terms of labour, particularly in our hospitality industry and rural parts of Scotland.

We could tackle those issues quickly had we [immigration] powers to do that. The backdrop of these figures makes the discussions on the Growth Commission very timely.