FOR most people in the independence movement, Gordon Brown is a cross between the Prince of Darkness and the Reverend IM Jolly. It was exactly four years today that he took Project Fear to a whole new level with his apocalyptic warning that independence was an “economic trapdoor” from which Scotland could never escape.

A million jobs could be wiped out, he told traditional Labour voters who were moving in droves into the Yes camp.

On the same day, he brought together David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband – remember them? – to sign the vow he had drafted.

It ended with the stirring words: “People want to see change.

A No vote will deliver faster, better and safer change than separation.”

That worked out well, didn’t it? Things have certainly changed over these past four years. The UK is about to leap through its own self-constructed economic trapdoor from which it will never return. Yesterday, the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, predicted that the consequences of Brexit will be so catastrophic that the police will be “preparing for civil unrest”.

Meanwhile, Brown is forecasting a new global economic crash – and insists that the UK is ill-prepared to deal with it. There has been no serious fiscal stimulus to stabilise the economy, he told the Guardian. That the British banking system is still a free-for-all. And that we are sleepwalking into another major financial crisis.

Tempting though it is to dismiss the pronouncements of Gordon Brown as the ramblings of a political has-been, he is not a lone soothsayer but is echoing a growing fear among economists that history may be about to repeat itself.

Many of us in Scotland who are on the progressive side of politics have over these past couple of years naturally been focused on Brexit and independence. But there are other forces at work that could have profound implications for all of us. Let’s just ponder how much the world has changed over the decade since the collapse of Lehman Brothers 10 years ago this weekend. Donald Trump. Racism and xenophobia on the rampage. Right-wing governments in power in 22 out of 28 EU states. Far-right parties, some of them semi-fascist, making huge advances across the continent. Support of 40% for the Front National in France’s last presidential election. The Freedom Party in Austria, founded by former nazis, holding government ministries. The far-right Northern League forming part of the Italian coalition government. An open racist Islamophobe clamping down on civil liberties in charge of Hungary. The extremist Alternative for Germany party rising from zero to winning 90 parliamentary seats. Poland governed by the ultra-right Law and Justice party which has seized control over state media and the judiciary. Even liberal Sweden had to breathe a collective sigh of relief last weekend because the far right narrowly failed to break through into second place in the election there.

Even where they’ve failed to achieve a toehold in government structured, hardline racists are setting the political agenda by driving traditional conservative parties, and even social democratic parties, to the right. One reason the so-called Sweden Democrats failed to make the gains they hoped for was because all the mainstream parties, left, right and centre, struck a consensus in favour of tough new immigration policies.

The SNP deserve praise for setting a tone of no-holds-barred anti-racism, support for immigration and defence of asylum seekers. The only evidence of narrow nationalism I see in Scotland is the Union Jack-waving and Rule Britannia-singing of hardline Brexiteers.

But the impact of the 2008 meltdown has affected us all in multiple other ways. The rise of zero-hours contracts, for example, which have multiplied five-fold over the past decade. A slump in real wages, with median pay in the UK last year standing at £23,327 compared to £24,088 in 2008. Rising prices. Increased VAT. Reduced social security and growing poverty, especially among children and pensioners. Food banks. Less affordable housing. And budgets for devolved governments slashed relentlessly.

And, of course, Brexit. Without the 2008 economic crash and the resulting austerity, it is highly unlikely the UK electorate would have voted for a rupture from the European Union. And conversely, the atmosphere of austerity almost certainly contributed to the defeat of the independence campaign in 2014. That sense of insecurity, reinforced by the lack of cash for the Scottish Government to carry out a more sweeping programme of reforms, aided the Unionist cause.

The financial collapse of 2008 should have driven society leftwards. But as Larry Elliot, the economics editor of the Guardian, pointed out recently: “Those who had done well in the decades that followed the Thatcher-Reagan revolution used all their power, influence, financial clout and cunning to resist change. A few tactical retreats were made in order to safeguard the status quo.”

And lo and behold, not a banker was jailed. Other than a bit of tinkering, the rules governing the banks have remained much the same. The power of international finance and global corporations is as strong as ever. And the rich continue to pile up mountains of wealth while the poor continue to foot the bill for the elites’ greed and recklessness. That’s why the centre ground is on the retreat globally. And it’s why we will not halt the march of the far right by pretending that all is well with the financial and economic conditions we live under.

The progressive left in Scotland, which is largely but not exclusively clustered around the broad independence movement, has been bold in opposing racism and xenophobia. We need to be equally bold in standing up for marginalised communities who have borne the brunt of austerity and want serious change. We need to take sides, not just on the vital issue of national sovereignty, but also on the social divide that cuts right through the heart of capitalist society. Otherwise the future, with or without independence, could turn sour.