YOUNG women who voted No in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum are starting to swing to a Yes vote, according to a recent study.
An online survey of 1500 people for the Scottish Independence Convention has found that younger women, a key demographic for a second independence campaign to target if and when it comes, are moving to Yes from a No position.
READ MORE: How smart research can help us win the next independence referendum
Across the entire sample, 9.7% of people questioned in the poll who voted No would now vote Yes. This figure rises sharply for women aged under 44 – 24.3% of this group who were No voters would now vote Yes.
A majority of voters, 52.5% of those in the survey, want a referendum before the 2021 Scottish elections, including a clear majority of those who say they don’t know how they would vote at an indyref2 ballot box.
In total, 1500 people from a representative cross sample of voters in Scotland were questioned in an online poll carried out in August.
Some of the other key findings included the identification of a “Brexit effect”, particularly in the young and particularly in young women, with women under 34 saying it is having the strongest effect on their intention to vote for independence.
Many voters who say they “don’t know” how they would vote in another independence referendum share more characteristics with Yes voters than with No voters, in terms of age, gender and occupation and in how confident they are in Scotland’s ability to solve the challenges independence will bring. This may help shape the messages to voters that a new campaign would bring.
SIC gatherings consistently draw big crowds. Photograph: Stewart Attwood
The Scottish Independence Convention (SIC) is a stakeholder organisation “for all those who wish to see Scotland be an independent country” and counts the SNP, Scottish Greens, SSP, Women for Independence and Business for Scotland as members as well as community and grass-roots independence organisations.
Iain Black, a marketing expert and co-convener of Yes Edinburgh North and Leith said the results are encouraging for the Yes movement.
“By asking people how they voted last time and their intentions in the future, we find strong movement toward Yes with the largest movement seen in women under 34.
“More women now support Yes than No, though overall a majority do not yet support independence. This is because of the high number of women stating they don’t know how they’d vote.”
Black added that shaping new messages and types of messages would hit the mark with voters looking for a message of hope and ambition for Scotland.
He added: “We found very strong, nearly off-the-charts, results for a particular type of message and message structure – the way it was worded and what it focused on – that made ‘don’t knows’ feel hope and made them more likely to change their minds about voting for independence. It is a message structure that is positive, confident without being over confident, and has a wee touch of steel in it.
“Crucially, we also asked respondents if the messages shown to them led them to reconsider arguments for independence. The message structure for achieving this is the same as the message structure motivating people to vote Yes.”
The SIC is planning to launch a new national campaign on November 30, St Andrews Day, with a high-profile fundraising appeal to fund staff and resources into a new delivery organisation for independence.
The National reported last week that the new group would help provide a strategic vision for the Yes campaign, carry out research and media work including a fact checking and rebuttal service. The latest collection of polls show that without an active campaign for a Yes vote, support for independence remains within one or two percentage points of the 45% achieved in the 2014 referendum.
Polls published last weekend from Survation for the Sunday Post show the Yes vote at 47% while a Panelbase poll put support at 44%. A separate Survation poll for the SNP showed support for independence at 46%, however this rises to 50% when voters are asked how they would vote if the UK does leave the EU next March.
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