Putin always had warning signs, but the West wilfully turned a blind eye

In the states that had become independent from the former Soviet Union, there was an excitement about the future and the new freedoms and opportunities that independence had delivered. Yet there were also fears and concerns about the threat that Russia continued to pose to their independence and the public regrets expressed over the Soviet Union’s demise by the relatively new president, Vladimir Putin.

My friends were right to be concerned. Just across the border from Georgia, the Russian army had crushed Chechnya’s independence aspirations. The results were horrific, and it is estimated that tens of thousands of civilians lost their lives along with thousands of combatants. The conflict was merciless, a 2003 UN Report describing the capital Grozny as “the most destroyed city on Earth”.

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Across the border in Georgia, refugees from the wars in breakaway South Ossetia and Abkhazia spent years living in dreadful poverty having been expelled by Moscow-backed forces. These conflicts are still unresolved, with the Russians tightening their group on South Ossetia, invading Georgia in 2008 – the day the Beijing Olympics opened.

In Ukraine there have been concerns about Russia for years. The Kremlin sees the country as part of its “sphere of influence” undermining its independence like its neighbours. In 2004 I was an election observer in Ukraine as the Orange Revolution swept the country after attempts to falsify the election in favour of Putin’s preferred candidate, even poisoning the eventual winner Viktor Yushchenko, whose face bore the clear scars of that attack. In 2014, the Russian army and Russia-backed militants seized Crimea and other parts of Ukraine in a war of aggression and annexation.

Ukraine was not alone; the Baltic states whose population suffered dreadfully under Soviet rule sought Nato and EU membership to strengthen their security and independence. They have continued to speak out against Russia’s actions, including the clampdown on the brave democracy campaigners in Belarus when Russian-backed dictator President Lukashenko (below) cheated the election with Russian help during a brutal crackdown on the population.

Russians themselves are not immune to President Putin’s actions. Political opponents are jailed and murdered, and it is one of the most dangerous countries in the world to be a journalist. Democracy and human rights campaigners in the country are among the bravest I have met. During a parliamentary delegation visit, we had to meet with human rights campaigners in secret, many of them still bearing visible signs of beatings from the police.

Yesterday’s invasion of Ukraine is a significant event and an escalation in Russia’s conflict with its neighbours, one they have feared for years. However, it should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following Putin’s Russia for more than two decades. The warning signs were there all along.

Those watching the devastating scenes unfold across Ukraine should bear in mind that this is a needless war of aggression. What makes it worse is that so many have been complicit in acting as apologists for Putin’s wars across the former Soviet Union and beyond, including the horrors of Syria. There has also been complicity in the corruption rife in Russia, with a recent report stating that the 500 richest Russians own more wealth than the poorest 99.8%.

Russian money in London in particular needs cleaned up. Four years ago, I co-authored a report with colleagues on the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee which warned of the dangers of the “flow of dirty money into the UK”.

Smog over the City of London, where a blind eye has been turned to Putin's regime

Turning a blind eye to London’s role in hiding the proceeds of Kremlin-connected corruption risks signalling that the UK is not serious about confronting the full spectrum of President Putin’s offensive measures.

The lesson of the past 20 years is that Vladimir Putin does not care about civilian deaths or Russia’s international reputation, but he and the oligarchs who support him do worry about their money. That is why we need effective action on the cash and the British Government has had plenty of time to act.

However, I am angry for my friends in danger in that country. Angry that greed and corruption has got in the way of effective action and angry that far too many people, of all political persuasions, have been wilful in their blindness of the dangers that Putin and his acolytes pose to our fellow Europeans and to our own security and well-being.

We are well passed the time of excuses – our friends in Ukraine deserve our support.

Stephen Gethins is a Professor of International Relations at the University of St Andrews and a former SNP Member of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee