THERESA May is about to embark on some serious negotiations with the rest of Europe.
After the Government triggers Article 50 in March – if indeed achieves that timescale, which is dependent on the decision of the Supreme Court – it has two years to sort out everything.
Except, they won’t even really have that long. This summer, there are French elections, followed by German elections. Then, once a deal has been agreed, it needs to be voted on by the European Parliament and council.
Ian Dunt – author of Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now – reckons May will only get “a year of clean, full-attention negotiating time to work with”.
And that’s not a lot of time for her to secure a customs agreement with the EU. It took Canada and EU members seven years to agree CETA. And once that’s happened it needs to ratified by all 27 EU member states.
In fact, not just member states, what did for CETA the first time round, was the unhappy Walloons of Wallonia, in Belgium, who used the power of the regional assembly to scupper the deal.
Yesterday, the reaction from Europe to May’s speech was mixed.
Jan Philipp Albrecht, a Green MEP for northern Germany, said May had told the rest of the EU to “Go f*** yourself”. He added: “Sad: Everything that May tells her British people to achieve would be possible inside the European Union but will be daydreams outside it.”
Kathleen Van Brempt, a Belgian socialist, tweeted: “The European Union is not a menu where the UK can freely pick and choose to their liking.”
Swedish Moderate MEP Christofer Fjellner wrote: “The UK leaving the single market will come at a large cost. Negotiating new free trade deals with others to compensate won’t be any easy task!”
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator said he was ready to go as soon as May and the UK were. “Agreement on an orderly exit is prerequisite for future partnership. My priority is to get the right deal for EU27,” he tweeted.
Barnier added: “Ready as soon as UK is. Only notification [triggering Article 50] can kick off negotiations.”
European Council President Donald Tusk said May’s speech was sad and surreal, but at least gave the rest of the EU a “more realistic” view of what Britain wanted.
“Sad process, surrealistic times but at least more realistic announcement on Brexit. EU27 united and ready to negotiate after Article 50.”
In their statement, the Irish Government, who have a dog in this fight in the way no other EU country does, said: “She made clear that her priorities include maintaining the common travel area and avoiding a return to a hard border with Northern Ireland, both of which are welcome.
“The Government notes that the British approach is now firmly that of a country which will leave the EU but which seeks to negotiate a new, close relationship with it.” While this will inevitably be seen by many as a ‘hard exit’, the analysis across Government has covered all possible models for the future UK relationship with the EU.”
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