BY-ELECTION campaigning is over in the constituencies of Stoke-On-Trent Central and Copeland, with voters heading to the polls today. Early indications are that Labour will win one and lose the other.
The votes in the two seats were caused by the resignation of two Labour MPs.
Tristram Hunt left Stoke-on-Trent Central to become the director of the Victoria and Albert Museum, while Jamie Reed resigned as Copeland’s man in Parliament, to take a job in the nuclear industry, saying he thought he would do a better job for his constituents there than he would in Westminster.
Both men had backed a Remain vote in the EU referendum, while both their constituencies had turned out strongly for Leave.
The Tories are confident in Copeland and believe they could become the first government to take an opposition seat in by-election since 1982.
This would be a major scalp for the Tories. Labour have effectively held the seat since 1935. At the last election they won with a majority just 2,564.
Sir Michael Fallon was in the constituency yesterday: “It is within our grasp,” he told the Daily Telegraph, “but it is a hard ask for a government to win a by-election.”
As is often the way in by-elections, the future of a hospital ward has dominated the campaign in Copeland.
Plans to downgrade maternity services at the West Cumberland Hospital has led to some visceral campaigning, with Labour putting out a leaflet claiming “mothers will die, babies will die, babies will be brain damaged”.
On Tuesday, a number of campaigners tried to drop off a petition signed by 30,000 people at Downing Street, but were supposedly told to go away and come back after Thursday.
Though Theresa May denied this when asked about it at Prime Mnister’s Questions.
“A petition was indeed delivered to No.10. The petition was accepted by No.10 Downing Street yesterday, so I suggest to the hon. Lady that she considers what she said in her question. I am aware of the issues that have been raised around West Cumberland hospital.
“I am aware of them because the very good Conservative candidate in Copeland, Trudy Harrison, has raised them with me. She has made it very clear that she wants to see no downgrading of services at West Cumberland hospital. She has made that clear to me and to health ministers.”
Only a few weeks ago it looked possible that Labour might lose the two seats, with Ukip putting up a real challenge in Stoke.
That was before the campaign of Ukip leader Paul Nuttall’s campaign imploded.
Last week he was forced to admit that he had not lost a close friend at Hillsborough, despite the claim being prominent on his website. It follows a comprehensive rubbishing of his claim to live in the constituency.
Bookies say they expect to Labour to hold onto the seat where they won with 5,179 majority in 2015, though the candidate Gareth Snell has come under fire after a series of embarrassing tweets were uncovered. This includes one calling Brexit a “a massive pile of shit”.
If Ukip do lose then Nuttall faces an uncomfortable conversation with his party on Friday morning. This was easily the best chance Ukip have ever had to get a new MP into the House of Commons. The party’s only representative, Douglas Carswell, was originally a Tory MP who jumped ship in 2014.
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