This is what happens if Theresa May says No to indyref2

The only time when Theresa May will concede that now is indeed the time is when support for independence crashes to below 30% in the opinion polls and it can be guaranteed that independence will be defeated by a crushing majority. Since there is as much chance of that happening as there is of Jacob Rees-Mogg being the best man at Ruth Davidson’s wedding, Theresa is only going to repeat her naw mantra.

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The Section 30 order has been much misrepresented in the press. History has been rewritten by people who forget that some of us were paying attention to what was happening at the time. When Alex Salmond negotiated the Edinburgh Agreement with David Cameron in 2012 and Cameron agreed to the Section 30 order, it was presented in the British media as Cameron giving his permission for the referendum to go ahead.

That’s not what happened at all. The purpose of the Section 30 order was to ensure that the outcome of the referendum was legally binding on both sides. The reason Cameron consented to it was because Scotland was going to go ahead with a referendum anyway, and consenting to the Section 30 order allowed the British government to maintain the pretence that it was still in charge of events.

The First Minister needs to remind Theresa May that her permission is not required for Scotland to have an independence vote. Scotland is not coming to the Prime Minister to beg for her grace and favour. Nicola should remind her that there is more than one avenue open to Scotland to hold a vote without the cooperation of a Westminster government which has a vested interest in ensuring that there is no vote at all. Theresa May can tell us all she likes that now is not the time for her, but Scotland will decide when it’s the time for Scotland. The consent of Theresa’s stopped clock is not necessary and is not being sought.

There is nothing in what passes for a British constitution to prevent the Scottish Parliament from pressing ahead with a consultative referendum without the consent of Westminster. That’s what the EU referendum was, and once there’s a vote the result becomes a political imperative.

The problem however is that the British nationalists have been paying as much attention to Catalonia as we have, and they would most certainly boycott a referendum taking place without a Section 30 order. They’re not so foolish as to do what Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy did and bring in the police from across the state and attempt to prevent the vote taking place with violence and intimidation, but they would refuse to participate and would loudly and constantly undermine the vote’s legitimacy. They’ll be aided in that by the overwhelming majority of the Scottish media.

Catalonia could attempt the strategy of a referendum that was boycotted by opponents of independence because they have a balanced and representative media which explained the importance of the vote to everyone. In Scotland all we’ll get is wall to wall coverage on the BBC and elsewhere that even if you do support independence there is no point in voting because Westminster won’t recognise the result. That’s going to make it almost impossible to ensure that turnout is high enough so that even if there had been active participation from a No campaign that Yes would still have won. And even if by some miracle we could achieve that, Westminster would still insist that the vote had no legitimacy and refuse to recognise it. Another tactic is going to be required.

The First Minister must make it crystal clear to Theresa May that if the Prime Minister refuses a Section 30 order, then the Scottish Government will press ahead with negotiations with the Greens, the Socialists, and the wider non-party Yes movement to develop a strategy which can maximise the Yes vote under the D’Hondt voting method used in Scottish parliamentary elections. The Scottish Government will then turn the next Holyrood elections into an effective referendum on independence.

Theresa May does have a choice. Nicola Sturgeon should gently but forcefully point out that her best choice would be to agree to a Section 30 order and for there to be a Scottish referendum with a single Yes campaign and a single No campaign, against the backdrop of a Westminster which can pose as respecting the right of the Scottish people to democratic self-determination. The alternative would be for Theresa May to refuse and then there will be a Scottish referendum held as a plebiscite election to Holyrood. Those elections will not be a referendum on a referendum as Theresa May might like, but will be a plebiscite on independence itself.

Such a plebiscite election would involve a united Yes campaign and a No campaign that’s divided between three parties which are mutually antagonistic, an election held against the backdrop of a Westminster which is seeking to block the democratic self-expression of the people of Scotland.

The British nationalist parties can boycott it if they please, but as well as being a referendum on Scottish independence, this will also be an election to the Scottish Parliament.

Boycotting it would mean there would be no political platform for the British nationalist parties in a Scottish Parliament with 100% pro-independence representation. Realistically, they can’t boycott it. Neither can they prevent it taking place. Once a result has been achieved and the combined pro-Yes parties have a majority in the Scottish Parliament, that will provide the mandate for independence negotiations to begin.

The choice of there being no Scottish referendum is not on the table. Theresa May does not dictate the course of events. That would be the Scottish Government. Now is the time for the Scottish Government to make that clear.