NOTICE how the Tories have shifted their position from “we will refuse an indyref whatever the outcome of the Holyrood election” to “an SNP majority means there will be another indyref”? Big shift, little reported.

It is premature to take the election outcome for granted. Turnout will be crucial, and complacency at this stage would be a foolish mistake. But if the polls are to be believed, we are on course for a pro-indy majority, if not an outright SNP majority. Either, under any normal interpretation of democracy, would surely be a mandate for indyref2, as even the Scottish Tories now seem to admit.

The best the Unionists can really hope for is that the SNP might lose a seat or two, allowing them to bleat about having passed “peak Nat.” But it won’t stop the new Scottish Government from campaigning for and holding a second independence referendum, after the headlines are no longer full of bad news about the pandemic. I am guessing that vote will be held in summer 2023, assuming that Yes is polling well at that stage. This is not guaranteed of course, but bear with me. Let’s consider this a very plausible trajectory.

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Faced with this prospect, what will the UK Government do now to forestall it? They are also firefighting on other fronts: the consequences of their mishandling of Brexit causing serious unrest in Northern Ireland; the tide of sleaze still knee-deep around the PM; and there are always unforeseeable events, dear boy, especially if you are running a government full of incompetents like the present shower.

The Unionists have so far shown little agility, plenty of inconsistency, and no real strategy on how they might present a strong case for the Union. Flag-waving and royal yachts can only really appeal to their own supporters, while at the same time annoying the soft Nos. Undermining the devolved powers and spending money “on Scotland’s behalf” might fool some people, but will be loudly exposed in a referendum campaign as cynical black-ops tactics.

If there are benefits of being told what to do by Westminster, they have yet to be explained, whereas the benefits of self-determination are straightforward enough to relate, especially when Westminster has made such a song and dance about the overriding importance of sovereignty when they were forcing Brexit down our throats.

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The UK Government will try to scaremonger that Scotland is uniquely incapable of running a viable economy, that the currency issue is insoluble and the border with England would be “hard” and unworkable. But Yes has already got good counter-arguments for all of these matters, and when we get the air time to ventilate and repeatedly explain them I believe they will be powerfully reassuring to any minds not already closed.

The Tories and their pals will not stop there, of course. They will fight indy with legal actions in any way they can. Surely the courts will not allow the UK Government to refute the democratic mandate we can win tomorrow, unless their argument is that the Union is not voluntary? They may be prepared to do that, even passing a new Act of Union to make it so. If they are forced to lean on this though, it will mean their other arguments are already lost, and the game is truly up.

If the only reason Scotland can’t choose to determine its own future is because we are a vassal state, I would hope and expect the Scottish Government to pursue independence even more vigorously, by withdrawing our MPs from Westminster and refusing to submit Scottish taxes to the UK Exchequer, for starters. I believe most Scots would support these actions if we were told we must be held in the UK against our will. If the UK Government is bright enough to understand these will be the consequences, they may take a different tack. I doubt if they are bright enough though, being blinded by their own sense of entitlement and their own myth-making.

I would anticipate that if the stick fails, they will try offering us carrots. Indeed this seems to be already happening, with mutterings about throwing billions of pounds across Hadrian’s Wall to appease our barbarian hordes – “the verminous Scotch.” The Federalism Fairy will be spoken of, though not in any realistic way, since it cannot and does not exist. They might offer us an early referendum at an inconvenient time (how generous) on a rigged set of terms, perhaps insisting on a majority vote of 60%, or a minimum turnout which they can defeat by telling their own supporters to boycott the vote. And so on. They will of course use the BBC and the right-wing press to drown us in propaganda and smear stories. Who knows what else they might try – agents provocateurs? Stirring up extremists to violence?

Ultimately though, independence will happen – and it will only be secure, fair and just if and when a clear majority of Scots actually WANT and demand it. 50/50 Yes/No is a good enough basis for another referendum, but to get a Yes win means we need the willing support of more than half the population. And if we can show that we do have that, the argument for the Union, such as it is, will evaporate. Westminster might hold on to Scotland as a vassal for a while by the force of law (if UK law can actually trump Scots law, that is) – but they cannot hold on to us politically for long if a clear majority of Scots do not support the arrangement. Government has to be by consent, or democracy itself is a lie.

Theo Seller
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