WILL they, won’t they?

That was the question yesterday ahead of the RMT rail union’s last-minute deal with the Scottish Government.

It’s a long time since there’s been such a high-stakes stand-off, evidently timed to coincide with the great and good arriving in Glasgow for the COP26 summit on climate change. Meanwhile, local branches of three other unions – Unison, Unite and the GMB – have voted for strike action by school cleaning, catering, refuse and recycling staff to get a better “national” award from Cosla – the body that represents Scotland’s councils.

All cite the extra mile their front-line staff have walked during Covid. All have chosen COP26 to pile the pressure on to employers and all say pay claims have been sitting unresolved for the best part of a year.

Three other rail unions had accepted the pay deal initially rejected by the RMT and it was all so maddening as a compromise seemed so close. And so it has proven.

ScotRail had been saying they had no cash for a better RMT deal – Cosla are saying the same to Unison, Unite and the GMB.

But then public sector employers always say that – it’s part of the unlovely dance that is pay bargaining.

READ MORE: Rail strikes during COP26 are called off after deal is struck with RMT union

And tens of thousands of female council staff were underpaid for decades, until they stopped accepting council pleas of poverty. Meeting their claims has been difficult – Glasgow’s SNP council found £600 million by equity release – mortgaging property and then leasing it back.

Of course, that means there’s even less cash in the bank. And yet the moral remains. Unions only win when they get organised and use whatever leverage comes to hand.

So, are they right or wrong to strike for better pay as the eyes of the world turn towards Scotland? Or is right and wrong a bit of a distraction?

Strike action at a moment of maximum disruption is inevitable because that’s the way confrontational, low-wage Britain works. And despite strong efforts to achieve a more consensual approach by the Scottish Government, we are still no exception.

Low pay has been eroding health, happiness and national confidence in Scotland for centuries.

Emigration in the Victorian era was largely driven by the fact Scottish wages were 20% lower than the English average and were still 10% lower at the outbreak of WW1 – kept low in part by influxes of Irish to create “a reserve army of labour”.

Low wages made life easy for the early industrialists, but poverty meant workers couldn’t generate enough demand for consumer goods and that inhibited the emergence of light industry and a service sector. So, when our heavy industry was finally undercut by international rivals, our economy wasn’t buoyant or diversified enough to adapt.

In short, Scotland’s low-wage economy hobbled the “workshop of the Empire” and created many of the structural economic problems we are still wrestling with today.

Low pay is Scotland’s curse.

Now of course, that doesn’t stop progressive Scots from flinching somewhat as Glasgow, Scotland, the council and the Scottish Government take pelters for the “autumn of discontent” currently unravelling.

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There’s civic pride at stake – naebody wants Glasgow’s COP26 to be a disaster and naebody wants chaos. There’s been criticism of the decision to hold COP26 at all in the face of Covid restrictions and Brexit-induced staffing and supply shortages. But no-one wants the two-week experience to be a shambles, now that it’s almost here.

Particularly on the rail network – one big reason Glasgow was chosen for COP26 by the UK Government. COP26 delegates are currently reading the following official travel information: “Glasgow and the surrounding area are well served by public transport and the main COP venue is served by its own train station [with] a range of smooth running, affordable and sustainable ways to reach the COP venue. As train is the most sustainable way to reach the COP26 venue, we encourage this method of travel.”

Highly stoked expectation about the ease of moving around Glasgow by train means there was bound to be disappointment with any disruption, even if a fleet of buses connecting main stations to the conference venue every 10 minutes does take some of the strain.

But it’s worth remembering that many factors lay behind the RMT’s strike decision.

Abellio is such a poor rail operator that the Scottish Government’s announced an “arms-length” publicly-owned company will take over in March, effectively ending the failed franchise system in Scotland. But they haven’t just been bad for passengers. Abellio’s shambolic approach to workforce planning meant they had to cancel a third of Sunday train services due to a lack of drivers just three months after winning the franchise in 2015. That and subsequent decisions sparked years of staffing disputes on Scotland’s railways. So, the latest dispute about pay had actually been bubbling away for years.

PERHAPS there was also some inter-union jostling as conductors of the RMT sought parity with the drivers of Aslef for rest-day working payments.

Perhaps public sector unions are trying to re-establish parity with the private sector where wages have (reportedly) risen due to chronic staff shortages. And perhaps male-dominated unions in Glasgow – accustomed to pole position and regular bonuses – are flexing their muscles in the wake of the recent equal pay settlement for female cleaning staff.

Fa kens.

But the tectonic plates of pay are shifting and inevitably that sparks demand for reassessment throughout the public sector. As one trade union leader put it: “We’re after levelling up, not levelling out.”

This is the way of the world, especially in “us v them” Britain where no political party champions the rights of workers. The Labour Party is not galloping to the rescue. So, ruthless/determined action in rare moments of political leverage are all that’s really available to force change. It would be great if it was otherwise. But it’s not.

So, I’d guess Yessers aren’t quite sure how to respond to the possibility of strikes.

The SNP-led Glasgow council and Scottish Government will inevitably take the blame for the chaos despite having no say in the timing or planning of this event. And since unions like the GMB campaigned actively for a No vote, it’s tempting to stick the boot in.

Tempting but futile. Unions exist only to further the interests of their members.

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As Ross Greer MSP tweeted: “Too many nominally ‘progressive’ people are recycling Tory attack lines against the unions striking during #COP26. Of course they’re taking advantage of an international summit. Their job is to improve the lot of their members, not worry about how this looks in the New York Times.”

Industrial relations have always operated this way, even if the public’s forgotten thanks to the hammering taken by organised labour since the days of Margaret Thatcher.

Naturally, for Scotland’s sake, we are hoping (praying) for better.

But let’s not be naive or damage already fraught industrial relations by venting frustration on any workforce.

There’s still time to talk and for calm heads to prevail.

After all, that’s what union reps and public sector employers are paid to do.