ONE central issue sits at the heart of COP28, the critical climate talks that conclude today will the world’s governments agree to phase out fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – that are driving the climate crisis?
For some countries, such as the world’s low-lying islands, the issue is one of survival. If temperatures are allowed to exceed the critical 1.5C threshold, which the UN and other expert bodies have said is a given if we continue to open new oil and gas fields, some will become uninhabitable.
Scotland, though, is in the small club of nations that are in the spotlight because of the power they have to avert such a crisis.
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Just one new development, the Rosebank oil field off the coast of Shetland, will produce more emissions than the world’s 28 lowest income countries do in a year.
While decisions over oil and gas licensing rest at Westminster, the Scottish Government can harness its political and diplomatic power to send a powerful international signal on this issue. By committing to transitioning away from oil and gas, it would both show both moral leadership and reap significant domestic benefits.
While rapidly decarbonising the economy is crucial, how we do so – and who benefits – also matters. The scars of poorly managed industrial transitions of the past are evident throughout Scotland today. As Scotland prepares to embark on another industrial transformation, it is vital that we do not repeat the mistakes of the past.
Past promises to bring good green jobs to Scotland have not been realised, but new opportunities are there for the taking.
In Scotland, this means creating well-paid, secure, unionised, green jobs throughout urban and rural Scotland alike, supporting workers as part of a managed decline of carbon-intensive industries, and actively reducing social, economic and regional inequalities, alleviating poverty, and increasing living standards.
It is why Humza Yousaf and Mairi McAllan, the Net Zero Secretary, took a delegation of businesses to Dubai. With the world now in a race to decarbonise, this year’s COP talks have been an opportunity to demonstrate commitment and attract investment.
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Here, Scotland has a model to follow in Denmark, which has not only planned to take a 20% stake in several planned offshore wind farms, but has sent the strongest of signals to investors of its commitment to the transition to clean power.
Denmark is a founding member of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, a group of first-mover countries committed to a managed phase-out of oil and gas production. This is the club to which Scotland needs to belong if it is to reap the benefits of the transition away from fossil fuels.
By contrast, the UK’s oil and gas industry is already experiencing decline, thanks to the age and depleted nature of the basin.
Jobs supported by the industry have more than halved in the past decade, despite the Government issuing hundreds of new licences, but the lack of industrial policy means the country has failed to build the alternative.
Another reason is that North Sea oil and gas operators effectively drafted the North Sea’s transition plan, but roughly three-quarters of them invest nothing in UK renewables.
In the two years since the Glasgow climate talks, the UK’s reputation as a climate leader has been damaged immeasurably thanks to Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “max out” North Sea oil and gas while watering down policies to tackle climate change. Scotland’s politicians will need to shout louder above this noise, but then the country has more at stake.
Miriam Brett is co-director of the Future Economy Scotland think tank.
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