Failure to co-operate on climate will spell disaster

The headlines that a £300 billion climate finance deal was reached to save the conference from the brink of collapse are to some extent accurate.

But beneath the surface, this COP reflects a dangerous breakdown in global co-operation and is the result of a worrying lack of political attention on the climate crisis.

Dubbed the “finance COP”, COP29 centred on crafting a global financial package to help nations – like the ones the Scottish Catholic International Aid Fund (Sciaf) works in – meet their climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.

From the earliest COPs, it has been acknowledged that developed nations, as the largest contributors to atmospheric damage historically and per capita, have a duty to take the lead.

This responsibility includes providing the financial resources needed by Global South countries to transition to low-carbon economies, adapt to climate challenges, and recover from the impacts they are already enduring.

This COP was a moment of reckoning that everyone knew was coming – it was the COP that should finally agree to a full and comprehensive financial package to underwrite all the climate action we need to see across the world. Unfortunately, what was agreed, many would say, falls far short of what is needed.

COP29 forced delegates to grapple with the impossible task of putting a cost on the future of the planet.

The £1.3 trillion proposal at the beginning of COP29 from the Global South was immediately dismissed by some Global North countries and the COP presidency as too ambitious, and unfeasible.

READ MORE: Scottish Greens slam ‘hopeless’  COP29 climate deal

Even climate champion Mary Robinson just a few days before the crisis was quoted speaking at COP29 saying developed countries just didn’t have the money for it. Such views were an unfortunate distortion of the truth.

How can you put a price on the future of the planet, and everyone who lives in it? Achieving a big enough financial package at COP29 was vital to all climate action. And the costs of inaction are even higher. New research published in the journal Nature suggests that the costs of climate change impacts could reach $19trn-$59trn in global annual damages by 2049.

Investing in climate action is absolutely the right thing to do: it’s right for nations to keep promises made in international agreements, it’s right in the name of justice.

But its also the smart thing to do. It’s in everyone’s interests everywhere to save the planet from further environmental breakdown, and the earlier we move, the cheaper it will be. Today’s climate finance deal was never about charity, as some commentators understood it to be. It was about global co-operation to tackle climate change under a rules-based international order. Failure to achieve a sufficient deal risks so much more global disorder coming down the track.

The financial package at COP29 is regarded as wholly inadequate and unambitious by many climate experts across the world. The devil is in the detail.

Clever accounting and new allowances made in the text approved mean the headline £300bn target per year may represent little more finance in real terms than is currently provided. The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, one of the key outcomes from COP28, is not explicitly mentioned in this new financial package, meaning contributions to this new fund remain largely voluntary, running the risk of its funding quickly drying up.

For these reasons and more – not to mention the chaotic approach of the COP29 presidency, especially in the final hours – many countries are leaving COP deeply dissatisfied.

However, despite all of this, the success of the COP process remains critical for the future of the planet, and the journey towards COP30 in Brazil must be marked by bold new commitments. By February, all nations are required to submit updated climate plans detailing their domestic strategies to cut emissions by 2035.

Throughout 2025, the focus must shift to rapidly scaling up financial resources to achieve the targets set at COP29 and to surpass them swiftly. This will require exploring innovative funding mechanisms, such as new levies on polluting activities, carbon taxes, debt relief and financial system transformation.

The UN climate process came perilously close to collapse at COP29, but it was narrowly salvaged. This near-crisis should serve as a wake-up call to everyone: the stakes are immense, and the breakdown of global co-operation on climate action would pose an existential threat to our planet. COP29 must galvanise the global community, which at times seems to be drifting toward environmental disaster.

It’s time to confront this challenge with urgency and determination.

Dr Ben Wilson is from the Scottish Catholic International Aid Fund