THE big polling story in early March was declining support for Yes and the SNP.
From highs of 58% for Yes and the SNP in late 2020, support for both had fallen below 50%, and a series of polls was showing No back in the lead.
There are many suggested causes for this decline. Some have pointed to Holyrood’s Harassment Complaints committee and the evidence given by the First Minister and her predecessor at the beginning of March. I’ve argued that improving perceptions of the UK Government amid the vaccine roll-out is a more likely cause.
READ MORE: Covid 'vaccine bounce', not Salmond inquiry, explains tightening of Holyrood race
Regardless of why, Yes supporters began March facing a slew of polling placing the independence movement on the back foot.
But two recent polls suggest this decline may have halted. At the beginning of March, polling showed that No had a one- or two-point lead. Over the weekend, an Opinium poll for Sky News showed Yes with a two-point lead, and today’s BMG Research poll for The Herald shows Yes ahead by four points – 52% to 48%.
All these results are within the margin of error, meaning that if a referendum were held tomorrow the result would be too close to call. But that this has been the situation since the beginning of March suggests that the decline in Yes support has halted.
In the same vein, support for the SNP has been steady throughout the past few weeks. All polling so far in March places the SNP’s constituency vote within the margin of error of 49%. The first poll of March, by Panelbase, put SNP support on 47%. Today’s BMG Research poll puts it on 48%.
In January, a YouGov poll found that 59% of Scots had a favourable opinion of Nicola Sturgeon. At the beginning of March, YouGov found that figure was now 57%. And over the weekend, Opinium also found that favourability towards the First Minister sat at 57%, and that the same proportion of Scots approve of the way she is handling her job as First Minister.
So, while there have been declines in support for the SNP since late 2020, that decline also appears to have halted.
READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon did not breach ministerial code, James Hamilton finds
This levelling out of Yes and SNP support (at a higher level than the party won in 2016), and unchanged, highly positive sentiment towards Nicola Sturgeon, has occurred amid constant committee leaks and headline allegations against the First Minister. That there hasn’t been further slippage is a testament to the SNP and Yes movement’s remarkable political staying power, and the enduring popularity of Nicola Sturgeon personally.
Campaigns in Scottish politics can often be crucial. At this stage in 2011, Scottish Labour were still on course to win the popular vote, which rapidly changed in the final month before election day. The First Minister still faces a vote of no confidence tomorrow, and the publication of the Holyrood Harassment Complaints committee’s report before the first leader’s debate next Monday.
But having been cleared of breaching the Ministerial Code by James Hamilton’s independent inquiry, there appears to be little obstacle now to the SNP and Yes movement getting on with the work of securing a pro-independence majority in May – and plenty of evidence to suggest that the most difficult period of this campaign could be behind them.
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