The National:

THE past week of Scottish politics has been dominated by wall-to-wall coverage of Alex Salmond’s new, pro-independence, list-only Alba Party.

To achieve Alba’s goal of a pro-independence “supermajority” (86 seats in the Scottish Parliament), they will likely need to win seats well into double figures. So, are they on course to do so?

We’ve now had two polls that take a stab at answering that question. The first, by Survation, found that the Alba Party has the support of 3% of voters on the regional list. The second, by Panelbase, finds Alba Party support on 6%.

These two polls might not seem too far apart, but thanks to the nuances of the Holyrood electoral system, that 3% difference could be the difference between six Alba seats and no seats at all.

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With more polling coming, we’ll soon have a more complete picture of Alba’s support. And as the month goes on, repeat polls will tell us whether Alba’s support is growing.

But for now, my sense is that Alba’s support sits between the two values we’ve seen.

Firstly, they probably command more support than Survation found, by dint of the fact that – while coverage of them last weekend was extensive – most voters won’t have heard much about them by the time Survation fielded (Monday and Tuesday this week). With the same poll finding that 10% of voters are favourable towards Alex Salmond, the further exposure they’ve received this week could have boosted support.

However, Panelbase could be overstating support. Most pollsters ask who you would vote for and prompt for the major parties with Holyrood representation, alongside an “Other” option. If you select “Other”, you can choose from the minor parties. They do this because, historically, polls that prompt for minor parties tend to overstate their support.

For example, in 2016 UKIP polled up to 6% of the regional vote but only won 2%, and YouGov continue to find the Scottish Socialist Party polling up to 4% of the regional vote, even though they are not standing in this election.

Despite this, Panelbase prompted not just for the Alba Party, but also for George Galloway’s Alliance for Unity party, which they found 4% support for, despite every poll to date finding their support at well below 1%, if that.

Panelbase also showed Alba as “The Alba Party (led by Alex Salmond)”. Given Salmond’s favourability rating (10%) is higher than his party’s polling, this may also be inflating the support Panelbase is finding. More importantly, because they did not do this for every party (and they shouldn’t do it for any party), their poll is certainly being skewed in one direction or another.

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I’ve written elsewhere that there is reason to think Alba’s core vote could range from 3-8%, and I stand by that estimate. Right now, I suspect it is towards the lower end, and would win them a couple of seats.

But there is all to play for with the Holyrood campaign underway. If Alba can secure the upper end of their expected core vote, they would win eight or nine seats. If they can break out beyond that core, they’ll be in touching distance of the pro-independence “supermajority” they’re aiming for.

This election is one of knife-edges. The knife-edge on which rests an SNP majority. The knife-edge on which second place rests, ready to fall to Labour or the Conservatives. And now, the knife-edge between Alba delivering Alex Salmond’s ultimate political comeback or final, crushing defeat.