AN independent Scotland would initially continue to use the pound, although not in a currency union with the UK, according to one of the central recommendations made in the SNP’s new economic blueprint.
The National has obtained an exclusive copy of the long-awaited report published today which sets out an ambitious prospectus for the country to realise its potential as a nation, increase living standards and reduce poverty and inequality.
Some observers believe the currency issue was a weakness during the 2014 campaign and in a bid to address any future concerns, the Sustainable Growth Commission devoted a large part of its work to the matter.
MORE: ‘Independent Scotland will cost £450m over 5 years’
MORE: Immigration at heart of new independence case
The report – Scotland: The New Case for Optimism – points to the precedent of Ireland which continued to successfully use the pound when it became independent without being tied to the UK’s financial arrangements. Ireland went on to establish its own currency, and later joined the euro.
“The Commission recommends the currency of an independent Scotland should remain the pound sterling for a possibly extended transition period,” it stated, before explaining over the longer term it may want to move to a new currency. “A future Scottish Government should put in place the arrangements and financial infrastructure that would support a move to an independent Scottish currency at such time as this was considered appropriate for the economy.”
The report’s overall argument is that Scotland is “without question a rich and successful nation” and one which could achieve even greater prosperity if it had full control of its powers. Increasing prosperity should go alongside raising living standards for all, it says, suggesting a target should be set to reduce poverty levels by 50%.
“Scotland has very significant comparative economic assets and advantages, in terms of natural resources, the education and skills of the people who live in Scotland and sectors with existing and potential global competitiveness,” it said.
“It is energy-rich with oil and gas resources, up to 25 per cent of Europe’s tidal power potential and 25 per cent of Europe’s offshore wind potential. We have world-class universities, a world-wide reputation for premium food and drink products and our country has been named the world’s most beautiful, boosting our outstanding tourism industry.
“We are at the cutting edge of games technology, photonics, life sciences, advanced manufacturing and other industries of the future.”
“Despite these abundant resources, other independent countries with the ability to tailor economic policy to their own needs have performed better than Scotland. The median income of the group of 12 small advanced economies is 14% higher in GDP per head; a gap of £4100 per person. This shows what is possible for an independent Scotland.”
The report takes the first year of independence as 2021/22 – which it says is “illustrative” – and sets out how it would give opportunities to, for example, tailor policies to suit the country’s own needs and economic characteristics, grow the population and lift performance closer to that of other small advanced economies.
Among the other key findings and recommendations are:
- An independent Scotland could begin in 2021/22 with a deficit of 5.5% of GDP.
- It would target a deficit value of below 3% GDP within five to 10 years.
- National debt should not increase beyond 50% of GDP and should stabilise at that level.
- Corporation tax should not exceed that of the UK’s.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon established the commission in September 2016 under the chairmanship of former banker Andrew Wilson. Writing in his introduction Wilson said that carrying on under the existing constitutional arrangements would be a “dereliction of our duty to both our own potential and that of the generations to follow”.
He added: “What must be beyond doubt for all sides in the debate is that Scotland has the experience and skill to navigate the current climate and any independence process as well as any of the 193 current members of the United Nations,” he said.
MORE: ‘Independent Scotland will cost £450m over 5 years’
MORE: Immigration at heart of new independence case
“We would start an independence transition with greater information certainty and existing institutions and competences than any other country that has ever made the choice. The conditions for success exist. Whether we choose to take the opportunity is a matter, as always, for the people who have made their lives here to choose.”
Ross Greer, of the Scottish Greens, said: “It’s clear that we are heading towards an independence referendum, the question now is when.
“Given the SNP’s decision to shelve last year’s parliamentary majority for a vote, we are currently careering towards the Tories’ hard Brexit with diminishing chances of escape. Shielding Scotland from this disaster and urgently building the case for both a referendum and for independence itself must be a major priority for all of us.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel