IT will take two days for Scotland to face shortages of medical supplies and food, if the UK crashes out of the Europe Union with no-deal, according to a secret UK Government “doomsday” Brexit report.
The dire warning was one of three scenarios drawn up by officials in David Davis’s Department for Exiting the EU.
The exercise was part of their contingency planning, in case Britain and Europe can’t agree on a future trade relationship.
Civil servants have modelled a mild scenario, a slightly more severe scenario and another dubbed the “Armageddon” scenario.
Scotland’s supermarket shelves going bare, and patients unable to get vital treatment, is only the slightly more severe scenario.
Details of the “Armageddon” scenario are not yet known.
The report says the port of Dover would, effectively, “collapse” on day one of a no-deal Brexit.
Some 10,000 trucks pass through the port each day, around 17% of the UK’s entire trade in goods by value. Currently just 2% of the trucks passing through face customs checks.
Bosses at the port say even just a two-minute delay in processing arrivals could cause a 17-mile delay.
While the government has suggested it would temporarily waive tariffs and border checks on goods entering Britain in the event of no deal, there’s no guarantee the EU would do the same.
It would likely be in Europe’s interests not to do the same.
A source told the paper: “In the second scenario, not even the worst, the port of Dover will collapse on day one. The supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland will run out of food within a couple of days, and hospitals will run out of medicines within two weeks.”
Officials would have to charter aircraft, or use the RAF to ferry supplies to the furthest corners of the UK.
“You would have to medevac medicine into Britain, and at the end of week two we would be running out of petrol as well,” the source said.
The papers were prepared for the Inter-Ministerial Group on Preparedness, which meets weekly when parliament is sitting.
Despite extraordinarily heavy security – the physical report was locked up in a safe, and shared only with a handful of ministers – the contents were leaked to The Sunday Times.
A government spokesman tried to play down the possibility of the Armageddon scenario. He confirmed the discussions had taken place, but said it was “completely false” the doomsday scenario would unfold.
“A significant amount of work and decision-making has gone into our no-deal plans, especially where it relates to ports, and we know that none of this would come to pass,” he said.
The paper also revealed that UK officials believe this month’s summit will be a “car crash” because “no progress has been made since March” to devise plans for a long-term deal.
Stephen Gethins, the SNP’s Foreign Affairs and Europe spokesperson, said May needed to take Armageddon off the table.
“With each day that passes it becomes clear that the cavalier attitude of the hard Brexiteers in Theresa May’s Cabinet is a danger to us all.
“We are less than a year from Brexit, and we still have no deal with the EU and no focus on getting the least worst outcome for families and businesses. These briefings suggest that the Tories are planning for a nightmare picture that brings to life the Brexit Secretary’s description of a Mad Max-style Brexit.”
His colleague Angus MacNeil tweeted that supermarkets in the rest of the UK would likely run out of food a day or two after Scotland: “ Luckily I have planted a lot of potatoes to deal with hard Brexit.”
Meanwhile, a Brexit backing, big-money, Tory donor has called for May to be forced out of office and replaced by Michael Gove.
Hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, who has donated thousands to the Tories in recent years, say Gove has all the skills necessary to make Brexit a success.
He told The Observer: “There’s no point in voting for freedom if you don’t know what to do when you’re free. What is true is that you have a whole lot of people who didn’t want this to happen who are in charge of it happening.
“I would go to Gove. He’s the only minister who is still being a minister. Michael has got lots of attributes that make him a non-traditional Tory. He is very aware that he has to appeal not just to the wealthy, but also more broadly. I don’t think May can carry Brexit through any more.”
May has a tricky month ahead of her before she flies out to Brussels for an EU summit.
The Commons will vote on the controversial EU withdrawal bill, and the 15 amendments to the legislation made by the Lords, including one committing the UK to remaining in the customs union.
It’s believed her chief whip thinks she may not have the votes to unpick all the changes made by peers.
Though that vote on the customs union won’t be binding, but more a test of strength ahead of the real vote — an amendment on the government’s trade bill, expected in October.
May also faces a sizeable rebellion over Northern Ireland’s strict abortion laws.
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