THE road ahead for Scotland may well be a rocky one. In fact knowing the opposition we face and how well resourced it is, I would be very surprised if, in the short term, it is not. The road ahead for the UK may be rockier still, and it offers us, right now, an opportunity we will be unlikely to see again.
But the rockiest road of all is that facing the Labour Party in Scotland. It may well be already dead. If it is not quite dead it does, however, still have a choice.
It can do the right thing.
“Give us our parliament in Scotland. We will start with no traditions. We will start with ideals. We will start with purpose, with courage. We will start with the aim and the object that there will be 134 men and women pledged to 134 Scottish constituencies, to spend their whole brain power, their whole courage and their whole soul in making Scotland into a country in which we can take people from all the nations of the earth and say: this is our land, this is our Scotland, these are our men, our works, our women and children: can you beat it?”
So, who said that? Was it Winnie Ewing? Or Willie Wolfe perhaps? Margo MacDonald? Arthur Donaldson? Or further back, Don Roberto - RB Cunninghame Graham – a founder of the SNP in 1934? Roland Muirhead? John McCormick of the Scottish Covenant?
Nope. It was none of these. It was James Maxton, Labour MP.
James Maxton was on the same political road as Keir Hardie and John Maclean (and James Connolly) – the products of the sentiment that delivered the Scottish Socialist Federation, the Scottish Home Rule Association and the Independent Labour Party which provided, in R.B. Cunninghame Graham and many others from the Labour movement, the foundation of the Scottish National Party.
Labour MP James Maxton was a supporter of Home Rule for Scotland
And then we have the Labour Party (Scottish branch office) in Scotland today.
But let’s have a look at the others first. The Greens plough a difficult furrow with some determination. But they are with us because they see a better chance of success for their agenda in an independent Scotland.
Then the LibDems. You could walk across Scotland for a week and never meet a member of this elusive party. They appear to exist because the media can use them against the SNP.
Traditionally the LibDems (and the Liberals before that) have held some seats in Scotland because they are neither Labour nor Tory. That’s about it – though of course they were the opposition to the right-wing Tories for many decades until Labour came along and displaced them.
LibDem MSPs Alex Cole-Hamilton and Willie Rennie
I’ve no idea what their policy position is on anything serious – it tends to be different in different places and on different days. The original Liberals however did provide many substantial political figures in their heyday and had a very strong home rule element – “Johnny” Lord Bannerman for instance was a member of the Liberals and a founding member of the SNP when you could be in both at the same time – but these days are past now, to coin a phrase.
On to the Tories then. I should first of all point out that today’s Tories are not at all like the Tories of yesteryear who won elections because they were quite nice people. What is significant about the Tories in Scotland today is that despite about five years of relentless media promotion and a couple of years of non-stop Ruthery they are sitting at the giddy heights of only about 25% in the polls. That’s it.
Despite media spin, particularly south of the Border, they are presently going nowhere and the shadowy establishment that controls the political agenda in the UK are staring at the featureless Tory benches in the Scottish Parliament looking for some sort of rescue opportunity. The thing about Tories however is that you don’t have to believe in anything at all, except how best to hold on to power to defend the status quo so there is very little dispute or public division in their faithful ranks. Rule Britannia. They are, however, a dying breed.
A relentless media drive to promote Ruth Davidson has failed
(That said, an observation. If it becomes very evident that independence is inevitable – or that there may be some personal advantage to be had in an independent Scotland – the previous condition still applies but the bandwagon may get very busy. We will know we are surely winning if they climb aboard.)
But what is the case with the other big boy? We arrive at Scottish Labour, or – to be more accurate – the Labour Party in Scotland. While one could doubt if the shadows that now represent this outfit in Scotland’s parliament hold strongly to any significant political agenda, it has spawned, among those who have walked away from it, the SSP, Solidarity, Labour For Independence and lots of members for the SNP and the Greens.
There is a strange parallel here. Scotland may be the only country ever to vote against its own independence. Is this because the Labour Party in Scotland is the only supposedly radical left-wing movement to have campaigned against independence for its own country?
Labour in Scotland is in the wrong position – tartan Tories indeed – and their behaviour in political positions like the liaisons with Tories to run councils in Scotland is merely further evidence of their suicide. They were formed and they exist to oppose the Tories, not to hold them up, and they are following the Liberals to inconsequence.
This is not as obvious to some as it might be because although the mainstream media will destroy Jeremy Corbyn in England it is happy to use Corbyn’s Labour Party in Scotland as part of its weaponry against the SNP and independence.
However, it is not all going to plan in Scotland. There was indeed a moderate but nonetheless significant Corbyn bounce into Scotland. But the very poor result Labour achieved in the local elections in England to a background of the least coherent Tory government in anybody’s memory has sunk that.
Most importantly, many are now questioning, no matter the possible benefit many may expect of a Labour administration, whether Labour in Westminster has anything to offer Scotland. Central to that is an acknowledgement by the politically informed that Jeremy Corbyn will never be allowed to be PM.
A tame tory like Tony Blair in charge of Labour could well result in a General Election the establishment would be comfortable with – but there is unlikely to be a General Election as long as Corbyn could possibly win it. And the destruction of Jeremy in the media will continue apace in case Mrs May’s government actually folds – which can only happen by a revolt against the establishment in the Tory party, which is unlikely. A replacement for Mrs May (who will carry all the bad stuff away with her) is a likelier solution.
Jeremy Corbyn is not likely to be UK Prime Minister any time soon
What the Labour Party in Scotland actually is is the last impediment to independence. And what keeps them in that position is not political or constitutional difference but a hatred of the SNP which came along and stole much of Labour’s support and power. (Let us not forget that three successive Labour ex-Lord Provosts of Glasgow came out for independence at the 2014 referendum).
The core vote of Labour in Scotland is not constitutionally unionist and while some of it will maintain its commendable loyalty to Labour in most elections much of it will vote for independence in a referendum – as they did under the encouragement of Labour For Independence at the last. Many saw the light when the Orange Order came out tooting and fluting behind Union Jacks.
So while across Scotland elected Labour functionaries will defend their weakening grasp on power by cosying up to the Tories, much of their support is under pressure to move the other way.
I wonder when the first move across the floor will signal our final battle. I know exactly where Hardie and Maclean and Maxton and all the others would be standing if they were with us today.
When Labour takes up its place our final battle for independence will be Scotland against the Tories.
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