PHILIP Hammond has admitted that leaving the EU will damage the economy, even in the unlikely event that MPs back Theresa May’s doomed Brexit deal.
The Chancellor said the Government had an obligation to go through with the whole thing because it was what the majority of voters in the UK wanted.
His comments came as assessments of Brexit and the political declaration negotiated by May – which outlines the future relationship between the UK and the EU – were released by the Treasury and the Bank of England.
The Government’s 83-page-document made for grim reading, predicting damage to the economy regardless of the type of Brexit Britain eventually takes.
But it was nothing compared to analysis by the Bank of England, published late yesterday afternoon.
The report warned that a no-deal disorderly Brexit would see GDP fall by 8%, unemployment rise 7.5%, inflation surge 6.5%, and house prices fall 30%.
If that is how the UK leaves the European Union then the pound would likely fall by 25% , the bank said, making it worth less than a dollar or a Euro.
It would, they warned, be worse for the UK economy than the financial crash of 2008.
In the event of a disruptive Brexit, where there is no change to border trade or financial markets, house prices would only decline 14% and the pound would fall by 15% against the US dollar to £1.10.
Earlier in the day when asked by the BBC if it would be better for the economy for the UK to stay in the EU, Hammond replied: “If you look purely at the economy, remaining in the single market would give us an economic advantage, yes.”
The Chancellor said that the Prime Minister’s Brexit agreement “absolutely minimises” and “reduces to an absolute minimum the economic impact of leaving the EU, while delivering the political benefits, in terms of being able to do third-country trade deals, having control of our fishing waters, and the many other issues that will be delivered politically”.
The comments infuriated Brexiteers, who have long been critical of Hammond, and May was forced to publicly contradict her Chancellor during Prime Minister’s Questions.
Responding to a question from the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford about the Treasury’s paper, the Prime Minister said: “The analysis does not show that we will be poorer than the status quo today.
“What the analysis shows is that this is a strong economy that will continue to grow and that the model that actually delivers best on delivering the vote of the British people, and for our jobs and our economy, is the model that the Government have put forward, the deal that the Government are proposing.”
The Government’s paper was criticised as it compared the likely impact of the proposals agreed by the Cabinet at Chequers, against the alternative scenarios of Norway-style membership of the European Economic Area, a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU and a no-deal Brexit.
That led to accusations of a cover-up as the Chequers proposals have effectively already been killed off by the EU.
In the political declaration MPs are set to vote on at Westminster in 12 days, there is no mention of “frictionless trade”.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called them “meaningless” as “there is no actual deal to model, just a 26-page wishlist”.
The analysis said that GDP will be lower in 15 years under all Brexit scenarios than it would be with EU membership.
And in all cases, national income will be reduced if migration from Europe is reduced from its current levels.
Scottish Brexit Secretary Michael Russell said the UK Government had confirmed that “its decision to impose Brexit against the will of the people of Scotland will make the country poorer under any outcome”.
He added: “The UK Government is now wilfully and disgracefully pressing ahead with a policy it knows will hit living standards and the economy.
"Worse, it is trying to cover up the scale of the damage by modelling proposals it put forward in the summer that the EU has already rejected, instead of the blindfold Brexit they are actually proposing.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel