THIS week is “a moment for us all” as Nicola Sturgeon concurred on radio yesterday. It has all changed at Westminster and changed utterly. For different reasons it has all changed for Scotland too, due to the ruling from the European Court of Justice giving power to revoke Article 50 to the House of Commons – ironically an expression of sovereignty Brexiteer MPs now seem to resent.
The SNP leadership have worked hard but fruitlessly to save both the UK Tory government and UK Labour opposition, with their similar unrealistic policies, from taking the UK economy to the edge of catastrophe. Brexiteers want to go to heaven but nobody wants to die. Likewise, they want Brexit but not as soon as March when they would have to carry responsibility.
Against all of this, the SNP has to refocus and has to be clear on its demands, given the ruling from the ECJ. The demand has to be to revoke Article 50 or we hold our mandated independence referendum, as the SNP manifesto stated we would do, if we were taken out of Europe against our national sovereign will.
Independence is the core policy of the SNP. People’s Votes and even votes of no confidence are merely rabbit holes to get lost in, during this “moment for us all”. Independent Ireland is proving how much better off they are and better able to shape their society than Scotland while stuck in the faltering, failing and internationally mocked chaotic UK. Over the last nine years Ireland’s tax revenues have grown 32% – Scotland’s block grant fell by 6.9%.
Talking to MPs at Westminster it is clear Labour do not want an election before the Brexit storm, if they wait three months the egg can be all over Tory faces, rather than their own, given they subscribe to the same basic Brexit approach.
Therefore, because Labour want a General Election before a People’s Vote we can consequently forget about that until at least March, if ever!
The SNP and Scottish Government now have to put Scotland first. They’ve done what they reasonably can to fight Brexit. It has even dominated the SNP’s twitter feed and that of the party’s leading lights, eclipsing the issue of independence.
Fear of a disastrous no-deal Brexit is helping to fuel support for a Yes vote
Indeed, in the recent past the Tories tweet more about independence than the SNP and you can be certain that the Tories do it negatively. But despite the predominance of negative messaging, support for independence looks to be at 59% in the event of a no-deal Brexit. However, we must always remember that we are the SNP – the Scottish National Party – not the SSBP – the Scottish Stop Brexit Party.
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One really interesting, and to me surprising, aspect to emerge in all of this is how business and agriculture in Northern Ireland are very comfortable with the possibility of a border with Britain because they can see the upside of being in the single market and the customs union – money talks as they say. Clearly Northern Irish business does not want to be isolated with Britain.
There is disarray on the Tory benches, Scotland is being disrespected and ignored, so what are we going to do about it? This is the week for getting independence at the top of the agenda by stating that we want to hold a referendum in 2019. Let’s pressure the Prime Minister to answer the Section 30 question that in her weakness she is avoiding answering.
Any haughty arrogance shown towards Scotland as the UK Prime Minster prostrates herself and begs across every other European nation only strengthens the need and desire for independence. To paraphrase a thought once made famous in Ireland, Theresa May’s European difficulty is Scotland’s opportunity.
The Nobel Prize-winning game theory strategy – The Nash Equilibrium – made famous in the film “A Beautiful Mind” dictates that we move and react to events.
Those on our own side trapped like rabbits in headlights on what to do regarding a Section 30 order should know that even rabbits in headlights move. We must all be fleet of foot if the opportunity arises in an election.
We must ensure our people on TV and radio broadcasts talk of independence. Nothing is certain, we must get going and not hesitate. It is claimed that even The Bruce himself nearly hesitated in 1314 before Bannockburn but was talked out of it by the Clan leaders Neil Campbell and Angus Òg MacDonald – it could have been all so different. Outcomes, as we can see from1314, are never certain, but we must try to mould them.
For goodness sake, if the time is not right now, when will it be?
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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