AS the Brexit madness continues in Westminster, we have discovered some important insights this week about public opinion in Scotland. Anecdotal evidence is now supported with some detailed research showing that Brexit is the most important issue determining views on Scottish independence.
We have also learned that Brexit is having a series of other impacts on opinions, particularly among voters who are undecided or open-minded about Scottish independence.
This has all become clear from the first findings of the inaugural large-scale opinion survey from the new polling and research organisation, Progress Scotland, which I run.
More than 2000 people took part in the poll conducted for Progress Scotland by Survation between of March 15 and 21, 2019.
READ MORE: Progress Scotland poll shows one in five voters undecided on indy
The headline Brexit poll figures are that among respondents, “Brexit/EU membership” is now the most important issue determining views on an independence vote, up from 22% in 2014 to 43%.
A further set of Brexit related questions among undecided voters included the following results:
- “Leaving the EU will be good for the Scottish economy in the long-term” – agree: 23%, disagree: 44%.
- “Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely” – agree: 63%, disagree: 13%.
- “Brexit has changed my view on Scottish independence” – agree: 45%, disagree: 22%.
- “If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, I would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum” – agree: 56%, disagree: 15%.
- “If Scotland becomes an independent country, it should be a full member of the European Union” – agree: 66%, disagree: 16%.
- “I am waiting to see what impact Brexit has on me before deciding how I would vote in another independence referendum” – agree: 49%, disagree: 19%.
All of these results are hugely interesting and encouraging for those of us who want to understand people who are reachable and persuadable.
As you can read exclusively elsewhere in today’s edition of The National, we have also learned that one fifth of respondents have either changed how they would vote on Scottish independence, or their views have changed a bit and they are not sure about how they would vote on Scottish independence.
This is also very encouraging, given that 21% strong group is significantly larger than the 5% difference that is required for the 2014 referendum result to be overturned.
There is a lot more that we have been able to learn from our poll, which will follow in the next days. Our focus is not as a barometer on where the level of support is for Yes/No, but to concentrate on people who are open-minded or undecided.
We will use a variety of different questions to identify that group as we grow the cohort of people who fall into the category of open-minded or undecided on the independence question.
READ MORE: Angus Robertson: Progress Scotland will help win independence
In our next phase of research, we will be able to concentrate on the nuances of people’s opinions through focus groups and using other research techniques. As far as I am aware, nobody is doing this kind of concentrated research.
Many thanks to the thousands of people who are supporting this work by becoming subscribers to Progress Scotland.
If you would like us to be able continue doing this important work, we would be very grateful if you became a subscriber by visiting our website at: www.progressscotland.org
Scotland has friends across Europe who want us to Remain
TO get away from the Brexit madness in the UK, I decided to take up the kind offer to speak in a panel discussion in Berlin yesterday about – you guessed it – Brexit. It was a good opportunity to reach a top-level audience of decision-makers in Germany and remind them that we in Scotland voted to remain in the European Union.
The event hosted at the impressive Allianz Forum next to the Brandenburg Gate included German government members, parliamentarians, a member of the Bundesbank board, the British ambassador and representatives of German industry and commerce, and the committed and talented members of the British Chamber of Commerce in Germany.
Hundreds of people attended the event and shared their exasperation about the self-harm of the Brexit process and their incomprehension of what has been happening at Westminster. When I asked if they would welcome Scotland back into the EU if the UK were to leave, there was loud applause.
That is exactly what happened when Scottish MEP Alyn Smith made a first class speech in the European Parliament this week. European Council president Donald Tusk and mainstream politicians across the chamber applauded the speech and the appeal to leave a light on for Scotland to find the way back to Europe.
We need to be aware that Scotland has friends across Europe. While the Brexit madness continues at Westminster there is an ever-growing understanding on the European continent that Scotland did not vote for this and we will do whatever it takes to protect our place in Europe.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
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The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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