THE opinion poll commissioned by Progress Scotland which was reported over the weekend contained an important truth. It told us that there is now an expectation in Scotland that this country will become independent.

Some 63% of undecided voters in Scotland now believe that Scotland is on the path to independence. Together with those who are already convinced of independence, that makes a majority in Scotland who believe that independence is only a matter of time.

The first step on the road to independence is for the idea to become normalised, for it to become an everyday part of political discourse. People have to realise that there is indeed a road, and that road can be travelled. This wasn’t the case in Scotland until relatively recently. While there was a brief surge in SNP support in the 1970s, for most of the 20th century the idea of Scottish independence was the preserve of a relatively small minority. It was anathema to the Labour and Conservative parties which dominated the Scottish political landscape.

Independence was regarded as a romantic fantasy, the preserve of big hairy men who put on kilts at weekends and camped in the hillsides pretending to be Pictish warriors. I could never do that, due to a lack of hair and an aversion to staying anywhere that doesn’t have plumbing and mains electricity.

That was still the attitude of many opponents of independence during the independence referendum campaign of 2014. Independence supporters were regularly accused of pandering to a romantic fantasy, of parochial nostalgia, of narrow-minded exclusive nationalism.

The goal of those opponents of independence was to persuade undecided voters that there was no realistic road to independence, that it wasn’t a grown-up idea for grown-up people.

Indeed, it was because that attitude was so widespread amongst British nationalists that David Cameron agreed to a Section 30 order in the first place.

He was convinced, along with much of Better Together at the start of the campaign, that independence would be defeated by a crushing majority which would ensure that it remained outside the mainstream of Scottish political discourse for decades to come.

As we all know, that didn’t happen. The greatest achievement of the Scottish independence campaign in 2014 was that it did not only succeed in bringing the idea of independence into the mainstream of Scottish political discourse, it made independence the single most important question in Scottish politics around which every other consideration revolves.

It is all the more remarkable that the independence movement achieved that feat given the concerted opposition of almost the entire media. With the honourable exception of the Sunday Herald, every single newspaper and media outlet in Scotland was opposed to independence. The perceived anti-indy bias of the BBC in particular has been much discussed.

However we now live in a Scotland where independence is a serious political option, one which is supported by two important and influential political parties. And there is an active and vital grassroots independence movement which is experienced and battle-hardened in campaigning and canvassing.

The media remains overwhelmingly opposed to independence, but opponents of independence have nothing to compare to the Scottish grassroots indy movement.

The second step is for independence to become an expectation. When there is a majority belief in the country that Scotland will eventually become independent, the nature of the question that the electorate is considering changes. In 2014 the question which the voters of Scotland were considering was, “Should Scotland become an independent country?” When most people in Scotland believe that it is going to become independent at some point, the question then becomes, “When should Scotland become an independent country?”

It’s far easier to persuade people who believe that independence is going to happen sooner or later to vote for independence in a referendum than it is to persuade people who are convinced that it is impossible. You no longer have to explain to them that independence is a realistic prospect, the discussion has become one about timing. Independence campaigners need to persuade those voters that the time is now.

That will entail a discussion about why that person believes that independence is going to happen, and why do they believe that it shouldn’t happen immediately. It may be that the person is not entirely persuaded by the policies currently on offer.

One of the most successful tactics of anti-independence campaigners has been to conflate the individual policies of the SNP with the question of independence as a whole. Independence is fundamentally about the people of Scotland getting governments that they vote for, and having the ability to vote politicians out of office when they don’t do what we expect of them. Scotland within the UK is sadly lacking in that department.

I’ve found that one of the most effective tactics when dealing with such voters is to separate the question of independence from the policies of the SNP.

The third step is for there to be widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo and a belief that reform is not possible within the constraints of the British state. Many people who could have been persuaded of the merits of independence in 2014 still had faith in the promises made to Scotland by Westminster politicians, and still believed that reform within the British system was possible.

What is striking about the anecdotal reports from those who switch from No to Yes is that they talk about their loss of trust in Westminster, and how they feel betrayed and let down by the breaking of promises and commitments made to Scotland. Brexit has only magnified those sentiments. The great pitch of Better Together, implicit within its very name, was that the UK is a partnership of nations.

The way that Brexit has been handled by the British Government has shown that to be a comforting myth told by opponents of independence to themselves so that they don’t have to confront the harsh reality that Scotland within the UK is expected to be subordinate and submissive.

Brexit has revealed that this is not a partnership of nations. There is indeed one nation within these islands which is treated as an equal by its partners, whose needs are respected and whose opinions are listened to. The problem for opponents of independence is that that nation is Ireland within the EU. The loss of faith and trust in the institutions of the British state is now widespread in Scotland.

As we await the announcement of Nicola Sturgeon about entering into a new stage in Scotland’s long walk to independence, the three conditions for a successful independence campaign have been met. Independence is a normal idea in Scottish politics. Most people believe that independence will happen eventually, and there is widespread anger and frustration with the British state and a belief that it is incapable of reform.

The conditions are all in place for a Yes victory in the campaign that is approaching. No wonder opponents of independence are so desperate to avoid having to face us.