POLITICAL campaigns and political parties in Scotland have long commissioned opinion polls, often with the aim to try and prove that the level of public support for their cause is heading in the right direction. To have any credibility polls are commissioned from established and respected polling organisations that follow rules, including the requirement to publish all of the polling tables if any part of the poll is released by their client.
For some campaigns or parties, there are however advantages in researching difficult questions where one has no idea about the likely answers. Usually these polls never see the light of day, as they might boomerang, with embarrassing conclusions which undermine their own interests.
It is a rare thing indeed, to see an organisation release such wholesale embarrassing and findings which are unhelpful for their cause as Scotland in Union did this week.
READ MORE: Scotland In Union poll on independence 'spectacularly backfires'
Who in their right mind would seek to commission an opinion poll to coincide with the SNP Spring Conference and then release the details showing that the SNP has a mammoth 19% lead, with 41% support, Labour are next on 24% while the Tories slip back into third place on 22%. If this were the result in a Westminster General Election, on a uniform swing that would see the SNP gain 16 seats to win 51 out of 59 Scottish seats. The Tories would lose 10 and hold only three, Labour would lose six and hold only one and the LibDems stand still with four.
And following the statement to the Scottish Parliament by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, what about the issue of the week? She outlined her sensible plans to bring forward legislation that would be necessary to hold an independence referendum.
What kind of genius masterstroke did Scotland in Union come up with? They led with a glass jaw releasing a poll that showed that 63% of respondents expressing a preference were in favour of Scotland having a referendum on independence.
That is extremely similar with the findings recently published by Progress Scotland. They showed that amongst respondents expressing an opinion: 61% agreed that there should be a referendum, 65% agreed that there would be a referendum within the next five years and on whether Scotland would become an independent country it was 63% that agreed.
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These were the numbers that were being discussed yesterday when I was on the Politics Live programme from the BBC Millbank studios in London hosted by Jo Coburn.
In a positive and lively discussion involving panelists from left to right – nobody questioned Scotland’s right to determine its future.
I pointed out that the Scottish Government had been elected in 2016 on a manifesto promise to hold a referendum in circumstances such as Scotland being taken out of the European Union against the wishes of voters in Scotland. That mandate was reinforced with a majority of Scottish MPs to Westminster elected on that platform in 2017. That mandate was also supported by a majority voted in the Scottish Parliament. A triple whammy.
When these facts are pointed out to reasonable people, they tend to agree with the fair and democratic response; that people in Scotland should be able to determine their future. David Lidington (pictured below), who is effectively the UK deputy prime minister, was wheeled out for the cameras this week to confirm the undemocratic message that the Westminster Government won’t respect Scottish democracy.
I really look forward to seeing UK Government representatives being pushed to answer what it will take for them to respect democratic decisions in Scotland.
Meanwhile, as SNP members gather for their Spring Conference today in Edinburgh, the mood is increasingly focused on winning over new supporters for independence.
Who must we speak to? How do we address their needs, interests, concerns and expectations? I think there is a growing interest and ability to think oneself into the shoes of the open-minded and undecided voter.
That is exactly the task that Progress Scotland has set itself. Having established that 21% of voters fall into the category of open-minded or undecided, we are now aiming our research at these people.
READ MORE: Angus Robertson: How Progress Scotland is strengthening case for Yes
We know that the issues of Europe/Brexit, as well as the economy and the NHS are the three top themes for people when considering their vote in the next independence referendum. We are now going to spend some time and effort getting to the bottom of people’s changing views.
If you are attending the SNP Spring Conference, please come along and share your suggestions about our future research. I will be joined by our independent polling expert Mark Diffley at a Progress Scotland fringe meeting tomorrow morning between 9-10am in the Tinto Suite of the EICC.
We would love to hear from you. If you are not attending, but would like to share any suggestions please email us your feedback via our website: www.progressscotland.org
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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