A GOVERNMENT document setting out what the first few days of a No-Deal Brexit could look like has been leaked.
Sky News obtained a "sensitive" Whitehall Power Point slide, produced before Boris Johnson became PM, which warns of "consumer panic", "law and order challenges" in Northern Ireland.
The slide explains what would happen during the first day, first fortnight, and first month of a No-Deal scenario.
EXC: On Sky News now: we’ve obtained a “sensitive” internal Whitehall slide which makes sober reading about the first month of a no deal brexit. It warns of
— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) August 1, 2019
- “consumer panic”
- “law and order challenges” in NI
- security gaps
- Brits abroad return
Produced before BJ became PM pic.twitter.com/2liueLqqeE
First day: In terms of the border, the document warns the first day would see trade and passenger flow from the UK to the EU slowing and additional processes at the border. UK shipping vessels could no longer have access to European waters, and vice versa.
For individual UK nationals living in EU countries, there are concerns that they may lose access to services and residence rights. Over in Northern Ireland, cross-border agricultural trade may virtually stop while other trade slows. The single electricity market (SEM), which provides power to the whole island of Ireland, could lose its legal basis. Previous analysis has suggested this could lead to electricity blackouts across Northern Ireland.
While all of this goes on, the economy will suffer as we see volatility of currency and financial markets.
First fortnight: Problems with the border may cause food shortages and consumer panic across the UK, even in areas "not directly affected at the border". The Government anticipates friction at sea between UK and EU shipping vessels.
READ MORE: Number 10 installs Brexit countdown clock costing around £500
As for security, the Government has warned there is a "possible increased risk of serious organised crime". This could include people smuggling and illegal migration. Unlawful data transfers to the UK could lead to enforcement action by EU regulators and cause disruption to flows.
As for the economy, markets would continue to be volatile.
First month: The first month of a No-Deal Brexit would see "small business face distress and potential law and order challenges" in Northern Ireland, the document claims. The Government expects UK nationals who are unable to meet new EU MS residency challenge criteria to start returning to the UK or asking for help.
Security will be difficult at the heightened policing will be unsustainable and operational gaps will begin to emerge.
And finally, the economy would see sterling settle at a lower level - possibly as low as 25% in a worst-case scenario - as well as near-term business disruption. The slide says this may have to be resolved through government programme Kingfisher.
The Government said it does not comment on leaked documents.
PM Boris Johnson has said we will leave the EU with or without a deal on October 31.
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