BREXIT has led to a massive surge in support for Scottish independence, according to two new polls.
A Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times Scotland found 50% of Scots would vote Yes in indyref2. A Progress Scotland survey found 59% of respondents support independence in the event of a No-Deal Brexit, with only 35% of the opinion a Yes vote is unlikely.
The Sunday Times’ 50% figure marks a five-point increase on the 45% Panelbase registered on average in its polls last year, which mirrored the 45% Yes, 55% No result of the 2014 independence referendum.
It is up on the 49% recorded in the paper’s last poll in June and is a record high for its regular Panelbase polls on the issue.
The survey of 1003 voters in Scotland carried out between Wednesday and Friday last week found 45% of people believe Scotland will be better off economically as an independent country within the EU rather than staying in the UK after Brexit. More than a third (35%) disagreed while one in five (20%) said they did not know.
The findings of both polls were released yesterday morning as the SNP conference began in Aberdeen, where the party’s Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, told delegates that Scottish independence will be the focus of any forthcoming General Election campaign.
READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon: Scottish independence has never been more compelling
The Progress Scotland poll surveyed 2032 people over the age of 16 in Scotland and found 55% of respondents believe that another independence referendum is likely in the next two years, while only 35% believe it is unlikely.
More than half (53%) of those who took part said Brexit has changed their view of independence, 61% said Brexit makes indyref2 more likely and 62% backed an independent Scotland staying in the EU.
When asked whether the UK should leave the EU with No Deal if the UK Government does not secure a deal by October 31, 24% said yes, 55% said no, 16% said neither and 5% were undecided.
Former SNP MP and managing director of Progress Scotland, Angus Robertson, stated Brexit is having “a major impact on public opinion in Scotland”.
He said: “These poll results show that Brexit is having a major impact on general public opinion on the timing of a second independence referendum, and particularly on swing voters who are open-minded or undecided on Scottish independence.
“Swing voters on Scottish independence are strongly opposed to a No-Deal Brexit and 59% say that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, they would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum.
“A clear majority believe that Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely and that their views have changed about Scottish independence,” Robertson added.
“Clearly Brexit is having a major impact on public opinion in Scotland and we will continue to research this and the other factors which are driving changes on voting intent-ions ahead of another independence referendum.”
READ MORE: Angus Robertson: No matter how they vote, Scots back Yes/No question
The Sunday Times Scotland’s poll indicates large gains for the SNP at the next General Election, with the party on 39%, up one percentage point since June.
The Conservatives are also predicted to gain 21%, up three percentage points since June, while Labour are on 19%, up two.
The LibDems are unchanged on 13% and the Greens unchanged on 2%, while the Brexit Party was on 5%, down four percentage points since June.
Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the Sunday Times the Tories face losing more than half of their Scottish seats.
He calculates the SNP will win 48 seats – up from 35 at the 2017 General Election – with the Scottish Tories falling from 13 to five, Labour from seven to one, and the LibDems rising from four to five.
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