Every day until the election we will profile all 59 of Scotland’s contests. Can the SNP hold what they have or win any new seats? James Kelly of ScotGoesPop has the answers
BANFF AND BUCHAN
Winner in 2017: David Duguid (Conservatives) At entirely the opposite end of the spectrum is a Tory-held seat which is estimated to have been the only constituency in Scotland to vote Leave in the EU referendum. It’s important to stress that’s only an estimate, and that the potential margin of error on the 54% Leave figure means it’s entirely conceivable that all 59 Scottish constituencies voted Remain.
But at the very least it’s safe to assume that opinion on Brexit in Banff and Buchan was evenly divided in 2016. The drift towards Remain in polls since then has been limited, so it’s likely that there’s still a Leave support in the constituency of 45% or higher, which is the sort of figure that could theoretically take the Tories to a comfortable victory under the First Past The Post voting system.
The good news is that not all Leave voters are going to back the Tories. If they were, the Tories would be on 38% of the vote across Scotland, and no opinion poll this year has put them within light-years of that figure. So a Brexit-friendly constituency need by no means be considered a lost cause for the SNP, and it’s striking that the 9% deficit they have to reverse in Banff and Buchan is identical to the 9% Tory lead in East Renfrewshire. But it may well be markedly tougher to achieve the relatively modest required swing when they’re fishing in a pond that is only around 50% Remain than it will be in the three-quarters Remain pond of Paul Masterton’s seat.
READ MORE: General Election analysis: SNP hoping to reclaim East Renfrewshire
READ MORE: General Election analysis: Edinburgh South West could easily be held
The SNP do have a couple of advantages in Banff and Buchan that they don’t have in East Renfrewshire. Firstly, there’s the long-standing SNP tradition in the constituency, which for 18 years was held by former first minister Alex Salmond. On the last three occasions he contested the seat, Salmond’s majority over the Tories never dipped below a whopping 32%. There was a very long time when it seemed almost unimaginable that the Tories would ever get back into the game. And secondly, Banff and Buchan is unambiguously a two-horse race, which means Remainers will know that if they don’t vote SNP, they’ll effectively be helping a pro-Brexit party to win.
That should concentrate the minds of at least some voters who might otherwise be tempted by the LibDems.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel