WE are up to our oxters in cold, wet November weather, but the Tory party are still dreaming about sunlit uplands and Brexit unicorns over the rainbow.
Their latest wheeze is their fantasy new trade deal, all done and dusted in less than a year in order to “get Brexit done”. No extension, no bother. Who are they trying to kid? The obvious answer is the voters, stupid. Because anyone with any expertise in this area will tell you it is nigh impossible to secure such a tricky negotiation in such a small amount of time.
These kinds of facts ain’t stopping Boris Johnson, who has pledged not to extend the implementation period beyond this time next year. In other words, and they are being very, very careful not to say these exact words, No Deal is still a likely scenario. And, if what the polls are predicting is correct, after December 12, Boris Johnson is going to have the majority he needs to march us towards the gunfire of a No-Deal catastrophe with Nigel Farage flapping and clapping in the wings, like a pet penguin looking for fish. After all, is that not what Farage wanted in return for standing down his Brexit Party MPs; they were just collateral damage, worth it to secure the greater bad, still to be wreaked upon the people of this nation.
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In the meantime, Tory HQ will wheel out the likes of Sajid Javid to defend the likelihood of securing a deal in this tiny time frame, and Dominic Raab to categorically deny any desire for No Deal, and of course, serial screw-looser Michael Gove, to spout whatever nonsense he damn well feels like.
I note Gove’s adopted the “oven-ready” phrase that Johnson keeps churning out to describe his Brexit deal. They’re not even attempting to hide how awful this deal will be for everyone except their elite buddies; we all know that an oven-ready meal tastes mediocre compared to a proper home-cooked meal. It’s the perfect metaphor for this Government and those who lead it. Because Johnson and Gove don’t care about effort and expertise – they’re short-cut, mediocre men, leaving loose ends, careless about everyone else’s future as long as theirs look rosy. They are the ultimate I’m-alright Union Jokers.
It’s worth reminding ourselves of what a No-Deal Brexit actually means in the real world, not the version being surreptitiously sold to us through subliminal messaging by the ventriloquist Dominic Cummings and his Sooty Johnson. According to a new report published by the Scottish Government, a No Deal would have a devastating effect on the Scottish economy with an up to 7% fall in GDP, a steep rise in unemployment, and a significant drop in Scottish exports and business investment, with the potential to push us deep into another recession similar to the one in the 2008 post financial crash.
Given how much people are already struggling due to the excesses of Tory austerity, Universal Credit, welfare cuts, pension sanctions and the pressures on the working poor, despite important mitigation by Holyrood, it’s terrifying to imagine the implications of this devastation. Mothers, fathers, children, the elderly, the disabled, the vulnerable and isolated to be crushed by this Government’s wilful self-interest.
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Even the Government’s own forecasts on the economic effects of a deal such as the one proposed by Johnson, never mind No Deal, predict that the average person would find themselves £2250 a year less well off, with a 6.7% fall in GDP by 2034. This would break the millions already living in abject poverty across the UK. On top of this, the well respected economic think tank the National Institute of Social and Economic Research (NIESR) predicted that Johnson’s current deal could cost the UK economy up to £70 billion by the end of the 2020s. Eye-watering stuff. You don’t have to be an economist to figure out that No Deal just pushes these grim predictions from the stuff of nightmares towards grim reality.
But they can’t hide from the reality of Brexit forever. In a worst-case political scenario of the Tories romping home with a majority next month, they’re going to have to face the music over their lack of details and pithy soundbites. Because “getting Brexit done” will not be an overnight success, Deal or No Deal. It will be a long drawn-out and painful process. It will be the most agonising act of national self-immolation in history.
There shall be complicated negotiations and bad news all round as people’s standard of living plummets yet further, the cost of living skyrockets, medicine and food is in short supply and Scotland and Northern Ireland finally decide to make the break. Does Johnson really want to be associated with the economic downfall of the UK, the break-up of the Union and the isolation of whatever nation is left standing? Because we won’t see Michael Gove’s heels for dust when the nation gangs up looking for the Brexit fall guy. The spotlight will shine fully on Boris. And any idea of “betrayal” will take on quite a different target.
For a man of admirable consistency, in the sense that whatever his views he has always put himself first all his life, I can’t imagineJohnson would want this kind of legacy, or, more crucially, responsibility. Because for Johnson, with his elite selection of after-dinner jokes and one-liners, the devil will most definitely lurk in the detail. His plan is to say anything at all, no matter how far from the truth, in order to get back into power in the short term, but the long term is going to be unforgiving and relentless. Lord North lost America. Johnson will lose Scotland.
Boo hoo Bojo – just be careful what you wish for.
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