Every day until the election, James Kelly of ScotGoesPop is profiling Scotland’s UK Parliament constituencies
MIDLOTHIAN
Winner in 2017: Danielle Rowley (Labour)
THE SNP leadership must feel conflicted as the campaign moves through its final days with the polls continuing to point to a Tory overall majority.
It probably robs them of the chance to bring about an independence referendum by the most direct route, but on the other hand, the lack of a Labour comeback should make it more likely that the SNP will gain four or five Labour-held seats, of which Midlothian is a prime example.
That could make all the difference between winning 35 seats again and winning 40 – with the latter probably being the minimum required if the Unionist media are to acknowledge that the SNP have had a successful election.
Labour’s Danielle Rowley is defending an advantage of only 2% over the SNP, which means the SNP would need to have a national lead over Labour of 12 points or higher to take the seat on a uniform swing. Every poll so far has suggested they’ll do that well. But if Labour are heading for disaster in Scotland, they’ll be looking to secure their long-term survival by demonstrating the same cockroach-like resilience that the Liberals displayed in a handful of constituencies after ceasing to be a major party in the mid-20th century.
There is at least one reason for wondering whether Labour may be capable of defying the national trend, and that’s their unexpected success in holding off the SNP in the 2017 Midlothian council election. That victory occurred weeks before there was any sign of a Corbyn surge, and suggests there may be an unusually strong attachment to the Labour brand in the area.
But, there again, this is the SNP’s fifth top target seat, and they hold both of the overlapping Holyrood constituencies by a wide margin. The likelihood must be that the former SNP MP for Midlothian, Owen Thompson, will be returning to Westminster after a two-year gap.
READ MORE: General Election analysis: Edinburgh South not as safe you think
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel