THE SNP are on track to win six more Scottish seats, according to YouGov’s latest constituency-by-constituency survey.
The pollsters, who have analysed more than 100,000 voter interviews over the past week, also predicted the Tories will win with a 28-seat majority – down from the sizeable 68-seat victory that the same YouGov-style research had been predicting only two weeks ago.
According to the latest findings, the SNP are set to win 41 seats, with the Tories and Labour predicted to win 339 and 231 respectively.
The LibDems are forecast to pick up just 15 seats. Plaid Cymru would hold onto their four constituencies and the Green Party their one, while Nigel Farage's Brexit Party would finish the election empty handed, polling predicts.
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While the polls have improved for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, the haul of 231 seats would mean a loss of 31 seats compared to 2017's outcome – its worst result since the 1980s.
According to YouGov, Labour could be set to make two gains, pulling off a Cabinet minister scalp by taking Chipping Barnet, the constituency currently held by Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers.
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is in trouble to the LibDems in Esher and Walton, while former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Woodford Green is clinging on by only two points against Labour, the polling indicates.
Chris Curtis, YouGov's political research manager, said: "The margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour's recent upward trend, means we can't currently rule out a hung parliament."
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YouGov uses multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to form its predictions – a model that predicted 93% of constituencies correctly in the snap election two years' ago.
The polling company first models voting preferences based on age, gender, education and previous votes, along with local political circumstances, before applying MRP, a technique which adds local factors and individual characteristics of each of Great Britain's 632 constituencies to come up with its final result.
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