JACKSON Carlaw and Michelle Ballantyne smiled, shook hands and exchanged warm words as the result of the Scottish Tory leadership election was announced yesterday.
But the cordiality on display for the cameras at yesterday’s press conference concealed a deep animosity between the two politicians which simmered away in what was a bad- tempered contest.
In the course of the race, which got under way in early January, Ballantyne attacked Carlaw’s performance as interim leader. She criticised his handling of the Scottish Tories’ General Election campaign, blaming him for the loss of seven of the party’s 13 MPs. Carlaw dismissed Ballantyne as a political lightweight, publicly accusing his social security spokeswoman of a lack of policy ideas and proposals.
Such was the level of antagonism between the rivals that Conservative grassroots members, along with the party’s MSPs and MPs, were probably much relieved that the contest was a short one and it is now all over.
READ MORE: Jackson Carlaw calls SNP an 'evangelical faith-based cult'
But the challenge for the Scottish Tories in finding someone to replace Davidson long-term may simply have been deferred until after the Holyrood election next May.
With polls showing the SNP on course for a fourth term in office and being in a position to form a majority Scottish government, Carlaw could face a struggle to hold onto his strongly remain-voting constituency of Eastwood.
The General Election in December saw the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald regain the parallel Westminster East Renfrewshire seat from the Tories’ Paul Masterton and voters may make a similar swing towards Nicola Sturgeon’s party in May next year.Carlaw could get re-elected as a list MSP, but his credibility as leader would be weakened if he fails to win back his own first-past-the-post seat.
And should the Tories lose some of their 31 MSPs and fall back below the 22.5% share of the vote the party achieved in 2016, a further leadership contest would inevitably ensue. It’s possible Carlaw may not be leader for long.
To hold on to the job he is quickly assembling a new frontbench team – probably without Ballantyne – and putting together a set of policies which he will hope could win back some voters and minimise losses at the 2021 election. He has also promised a review of the party’s policies, saying at the launch of his campaign that he would be fighting to “take down” Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.
He wants to increase the number of teachers in Scotland by 2,000, bring income taxes into line with the rest of the UK, and scrap the Scottish Government’s plan to introduce a so-called parking tax.
But his big obstacle in his drive to increase the Tories appeal to middle Scotland remains his boss Boris Johnson, a highly toxic figure among Scots voters.
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