Nicola Sturgeon: Lifting lockdown early could have ‘disastrous impact’

The First Minister said there is not enough evidence at this stage to set out a strategy to lift social isolation measures without risking “disastrous effects in terms of the virus spreading”.

Speaking at the Scottish Government’s daily briefing about coronavirus, national clinical director Professor Jason Leitch said the decisions would be made when the country reaches the “downward curve” of Covid-19 cases and deaths.

Sturgeon said she wanted the country to return to normal as soon as possible, but would not allow “impatience” at the lockdown “to do the damage that we’ve been trying to prevent”.

Asked if the Government had formulated a plan to lift the current restrictions, she said: “For me to stand up here today and say ‘here’s the exit strategy’, would not be acting responsibly because I don’t have the data, the evidence or the advice yet that would allow me to say with confidence: ‘we can come out of where we are now by doing X, Y and Z, in this particular order’, and be confident that wouldn’t have disastrous effects in terms of the virus spreading.”

She added: “Next week there is likely to be another Cobra meeting to start looking at this, but we’ve got to get the timing of this right because the consequences of not would be absolutely devastating.”

“These are horrendously difficult challenges for everybody who is advising governments and for governments everywhere,” she said, pledging to “give as much clarity as I possibly can to the public about what we’re asking them to do know, and why we’re asking you to do it.

“Because it’s by complying with these rules now that we do give ourselves the best chance of getting out of this quicker.”

Explaining the Government’s considerations, Leitch said: “We’re trying to balance three things now – and on the way out.

“We’re trying to balance harm from the coronavirus, harm if the health service gets overwhelmed and harm from the lockdown.

“These three harms are all mixed together, so the judgment is really challenging both for the advisers, and for the decision-makers.”

Scotland's clinical director Jason Leitch

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He added that suppressing the harm from Covid-19 spreading was “the most acute challenge right now”, but that the Government’s priorities were likely to change as the outbreak develops.

At the start of the briefing, the First Minister said a total of 495 patients have died in Scotland after testing positive for Covid-19. The figure is an increase of 48 from 447 on Thursday. Some 5275 people have now tested positive for the virus in Scotland, up by 318 from 4957 the day before.

There are 207 people in intensive care with coronavirus or coronavirus symptoms, a decrease of five on Thursday, while 1832 people are in hospital with confirmed or suspected Covid-19.

Attending the briefing for the first time yesterday, the Chief Constable of Police Scotland revealed officers had handed out more than 500 fines to people who have flouted lockdown rules, including to some attending house parties.

However, Iain Livingstone said he did not expect his officers to patrol supermarket aisles to ensure that only essential goods were being purchased, as some forces in England have reportedly done.

The Chief Constable said the vast majority of Scots are complying with the rules but urged everyone to “stick with it”.

He thanked people who are following the guidance, adding that his officers would “explain legal instructions, encourage compliance and when needed enforce the law”.

“Since emergency powers came into effect two weeks ago, we have been required to take enforcement action in limited situations,” said Livingstone.

“Thus far, across the whole of the country, we have issued more than 500 fixed penalty notices.

“This has typically been during incidents where people do not comply with legal instructions even after being spoken to by officers; for example, house parties or other gatherings in public where those involved refuse to disperse.”

Statistics released showed police had used the emergency powers to make 35 arrests since March 27. Police also used “reasonable force” to return people home on 58 occasions. There were a total of 537 fixed penalty notices issued, while groups were dispersed just under 1900 times.

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