CLAIM
Coronavirus deaths in Scottish care homes are double the ratio of England – Times headline, May 13
DOORSTEP ANSWER
There is strong academic evidence that care home deaths in England are being undercounted and in fact are similar to the Scottish mortality rate. That said, Scotland’s more elderly population suggests the death rate here could be higher because of the vulnerability of older people to the virus.
HOW MANY HOME CARE DEATHS IN SCOTLAND?
The reporting of Covid-19 deaths north of the border is the responsibility of National Records for Scotland. According to the latest NRS data (covering the period to 10 May), 45% of Covid-19 deaths registered to date in Scotland were in care homes.
However, in England and Wales, an official count by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) says that up to 1 May there had been 8,312 deaths in care homes in England and Wales where coronavirus was written on the death certificate. On the face of it, this represents only a quarter of all deaths associated with the virus to that point.
The problem is that elderly people in care homes are often transferred to hospitals when they contract Covid-19 symptoms. Sadly, many subsequently die. So the true number of deaths from care home residents must include those dying in hospital. When those are added to the ONS figure of 8,312 deaths actually occurring on care home premises, the cumulative fatalities in England and Wales relating to care home residents was a third higher at 12, 526 between 2 March and 1 May. That is some 40% of all Covid-19 deaths in England and Wales – much closer to the Scottish number.
However, the same ONS data shows that 23,136 more care home residents died than in the same period last year – while only 12,526 are registered this year as being directly caused by Covid-19. Which suggests that the English and Welsh care home fatality figure is being grossly under-reported.
AFFECT OF AGE AND CLASS DIFFERENCES
That said, there are deep-seated demographic, health, and social issues in Scotland that – all other things being equal – could result in a higher Covid-19 fatality rate north of the border. For instance, Covid-19 deaths are disproportionately high among the elderly – and proportionately Scotland has a higher elderly population than England. In Scotland, 19.1% of the population is of pensionable age compared with 18.4% in England.
Again, possibly as many as a quarter of Covid-19 deaths are associated with diabetes as an underlying issue. But Scotland has a higher prevalence of Type 2 diabetes than in the UK as a whole.
Also, other ONS data released on 1 May shows that, even allowing for age differences, the rate of deaths involving Covid-19 is roughly twice as high in the most deprived communities.
LSE STUDY SUGGESTS ENGLISH CARE HOME DEATHS UNDER-REPORTED
In replying to criticisms regarding the care home death rate in Scotland, the FM referred to a new study published by the London School of Economics. This paper was written by Adelina Comas-Herrera and Jose-Luis Fernández of the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, in the Department of Health Policy, at London School of Economics and Political Science (available on LSE website). It was published on 12 May.
The LSE study does not rely on counting registered deaths but instead calculates total excess mortality - over the rolling five-year average - in care homes in England and Wales, since 28 December 2019. This comes to 19,038, or 46% of all excess mortality in England and Wales. However, the LSE study points out that around of 15% of deaths among care home residents take place after they have been transferred to hospital.
Adjusting this by this factor, the LSE scientists found that by 1 May 2020 the total excess deaths among care home residents was actually 22,000. That is 54% of all excess mortality in England and Wales – an absolute majority. Note: this figure is significantly higher than the figures from the ONS based on death certificates alone, as it reflects indirect as well as direct impacts of COVID-19 on mortality.
FACT-CHECK RATING
Deaths are about more than numbers but in this case the english mortality rate is being miscounted.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel