We’re right to join with friends in North in safer lockdown exit

If ever there was a time to put political divisions aside it would be now, as we navigate our way out of what will most likely be the first wave of this virus and into the much-talked about “new normal”.

With all eyes on Scotland forging a far more cautious and person-centred approach to our lockdown exit strategy than the UK Government, just across the water, in a country characterised by political division, a similar divergent dynamic is unfolding.

When the Stormont Assembly in Northern Ireland published their exit strategy this month, it was noticeably more aligned to Dublin than London. Like the other devolved nations that make up Great Britain, they too were left out in the cold when the UK Government failed to consult Stormont before it published its own lockdown exit plans two weeks ago. It’s not the first time that the North has been side-lined or even forgotten about by Downing Street – just ask Arlene Foster about the Brexit negotiations, sea borders and tariffs. But the double whammy for Stormont was that Dublin also failed to share their exit strategy before announcing their plan to the Irish public on May 1.

At the time, both First Minister Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill reminded the Irish Taosieach Leo Varadkar, rather pointedly, that a memorandum of understanding exists between the two countries to share details on health matters during Covid-19. But beyond cross-border agreements, feeling excluded from Ireland’s plans has probably more to do with the fact that the Republic has managed the crisis far better than Westminster, which has generated worldwide shock and horror at its mishandling of the pandemic. It seems the North would rather be part of their neighbour’s more successful response than stay in lockstep with Number 10.

They’ve learned this the hard way. Back in March, the Republic of Ireland’s governmental strategy to coronavirus arriving on their shores was in marked contrast to the UK’s. While Britons were meeting at rugby matches, gigs and Cheltenham in early March, the Irish had cancelled their international matches, closed schools, pubs and restaurants, and even shut their church doors.

Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, the DUP and Sinn Fein were squabbling over which government to follow in terms of virus strategy, with O’Neill unsurprisingly arguing for an all-Ireland approach and Foster sticking to the UK’s timetable on school closures etc.

This political posturing evaporated when the UK finally locked down on March 23. But as the weeks have passed and the death toll has risen, it would seem that Northern Ireland’s decision to stay in lockstep with the UK at the initial stages has had disastrous consequences. Indeed, Emeritus Professor of Social Policy at Queens University in Belfast, Mike Tomlinson, has highlighted how the North’s later lockdown and lower rates of testing and tracing has undoubtedly contributed to a far higher death toll than that seen in the Republic so far.

It’s unsurprising then that scientists on both sides of the border are calling for an island-wide approach as a sensible and proactive epidemiological response to the ongoing crisis. Now politicians normally at loggerheads are keeping their options open.

Hindsight is a great thing but there’s little doubt that quick lockdown measures in the Republic saved lives. Clear communication through public health messaging and fast action to implement WHO guidance on tackling the pandemic as well as early implementation of test, trace and isolate measures has been widely applauded by the scientific community. They haven’t got everything right, with mistakes made along the way, but they certainly adopted Michael Ryan of the World Health Organisation’s mantra that “speed trumps perfection”. And all at the hands of a temporary Taoiseach, one who, as a former doctor, returned to work shifts at hospitals from early April in order to help with public health demand. It couldn’t be more different from the UK’s experience in every sense, most notably our absent Prime Minister.

No wonder Foster and O’Neill want to be kept up to date on this humane approach in Ireland compared to the “civic duty” attitude from London. Unlike the Johnson administration, there was never any question of the Irish Government experimenting with herd immunity, nor was there any doubt that keeping people safe was at the forefront of every decision taken. This is reflected in their strategy on school re-opening, with a rejection of any return in June as suggested by Westminster. Now the Republic has started the first phase of its exit plan, the North will be monitoring their progress no doubt.

Interestingly, when the Scottish Government published its lockdown exit strategy last Thursday, the four-phased plan bore a striking similarity to the Irish one. Regardless of braying from opposition parties at Holyrood, it seems eminently sensible for Scotland, a similar sized country to Ireland, to look at adopting measures along the same lines for much the same reason as our friends in the North. Travelling in tandem with the UK Government on stopping testing back in March has had serious consequences for all the nations of the United Kingdom, no matter how much the likes of Jackson Carlaw and former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson try to shift the blame.

Most markedly, Scotland’s exit looks nothing like the confusing and arguably dangerous “stay alert” strategy released by the UK Government. In fact, both Ireland and Scotland’s thorough and clearly laid out plans, with each colour-coded stage outlined in detail, make Johnson’s red and blue wave exit graphic look like a child’s drawing scribbled on the back of a beer mat.

But where Northern Ireland has the geographical advantage of bordering with the Republic, neither Scotland nor indeed Wales benefit from their neighbouring nation’s absence of detail on exiting lockdown.

On the mainland there are no scientists proposing that the devolved nations join the UK Government’s island-wide epidemiological approach; quite the contrary, with many scientists and academics calling for a distinct policy from Westminster and SAGE, one which understands that public health and the economy are inextricably linked, that schools must stay shut until clear measures for social distancing are implemented and that without test, trace, isolate and support systems put in place, the cycle of financially ruinous lockdowns may continue into a very dark future for all of us.

Scotland has ensured that our Test and Protect strategy is up and running before lockdown is lifted, while Wales has chosen Test, Trace and Protect with much the same outline, but valuable weeks have been lost since the UK Government initially stopped testing back in March and the devolved nations followed suit. Now as bespoke exit measures are adopted across the three smaller countries of the UK, it’s clear that Johnson’s self-entitled “Prime Minister for the Union” tag could not be further from the truth.

Like Northern Ireland, Scotland is right to look to the Republic for a sensible, safe and compassionate way out of this crisis while rejecting the chaos and misleading rhetoric emanating from Downing Street. Ultimately, it comes down to trust and transparency and the ability to adapt globally recognised and evolving science in order to save lives. Westminster may rail at being pushed off their power pedestal, but they’ve only got themselves to blame. It would seem that for the Scots and the Northern Irish, beyond ingrained political divisions and long-running questions of sovereignty, this is the real “united” deal breaker.