SNP set for huge Holyrood election win and mandate for indyref2

The Panelbase poll, commissioned by ScotGoesPop, also indicates that Nicola Sturgeon’s party would gain 48% of the regional list ballot vote in next year’s Holyrood elections.

Seat projections based on this would see the SNP gaining an additional nine seats, bringing the number of SNP MSPs to 72 – a thumping pro-independence majority even before you add in the projected five seats for the Scottish Greens.

This would dramatically increase pressure on Boris Johnson to grant a Section 30 order to hold indyref2.

Jackson Carlaw’s Scottish Tories are projected to lose six seats, bringing their total down to 25, while Richard Leonard’s Scottish Labour party is set to lose five seats, leaving them with 19 Holyrood politicians.

And it’s looking set to be an even more turbulent time for the Conservatives down in Westminster, with the poll revealing that, as it stands, the party would lose every one of its six Scottish constituencies to the SNP, who would gain 10 seats to bring them to 58 in total. That would leave them short just one seat of sweeping Scotland – Labour’s Ian Murray in Edinburgh South. 

READ MORE: James Kelly: Dramatic poll shows Ruth Davidson era is well and truly over

The figures have been revealed in the wake of the Dominic Cummings scandal, in which the Prime Minister’s top aide was caught making trips between London and Durham during lockdown.

The special adviser to Boris Johnson caused much controversy and faced calls to resign after his movements were uncovered, but has remained in his position and has failed to show any remorse for the trips.

Johnson was also urged to sack Cummings after the breach in rules, but refused to do so and instead backed him, along with many other Tory politicians.

Since then, Britain-wide polls have shown that support for the Conservatives has dropped, with the suggestion that much of the decrease is down to the scandal.

James Kelly of ScotGoesPop said he “could see no reason why the same trend wouldn’t be seen in Scotland” when commissioning his own poll – the first in Scotland since the controversy emerged.

READ MORE: Jackson Carlaw's reputation 'completely trashed' by Cummings scandal

Reflecting on the projected massive hit to the Scots Tories down south, Kelly said: "One prediction I did confidently make is that the Conservatives would suffer a significant decline in their Westminster vote share ... But what I didn’t anticipate is that the gap between the SNP and the Tories would be large enough that the Electoral Calculus projection model would show the Scottish Tories losing every single one of their six Westminster seats to the SNP.

"Douglas Ross, Alister Jack, even David Mundell ... all gone."

Kelly added that the data is " a savage indictment of Boris Johnson’s mishandling of the [Covid-19] crisis".

The Westminster projections also suggest that the LibDems will lose all four of their Scottish constituencies – including Orkney and Shetland, which has been a safe seat for the party for decades. 

Kelly says the “one crumb of comfort for the Tories” is the fact that they would remain the largest opposition party in Holyrood – though their representation would be a “far cry” from the days of former leader Ruth Davidson.

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SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “This poll shows strong public support for the SNP Scottish Government, and our First Minister, in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. 

“In contrast, the poll makes for dismal reading for the Tories after the party’s terrible handling of the Dominic Cummings scandal. Labour too continue to be out of touch with the people of Scotland and losing even more ground in Scotland.

“We're taking nothing for granted but with majority support for independence we will work for every vote at the next election. The Westminster system is broken and it’s time for Scotland to determine our own future.”