ALTHOUGH there are a variety of views within the Yes movement on the optimum timing of an independence referendum, one point on which most independence supporters are wholeheartedly agreed is that there can be no Westminster veto.
If Boris Johnson continues to refuse a Section 30 order, that cannot simply be the end of the matter. There are two main proposals for a way forward in that scenario. The first possibility is that the Scottish Parliament could legislate to hold a consultative indyref, and leave UK ministers to decide whether to challenge the legislation in court, if they believe it might exceed Holyrood’s powers.
If the challenge fails, the referendum would be the law of the land, and would not be a “wildcat” or “illegal” vote as is sometimes wrongly claimed.
The second possibility is that pro-independence parties could use a scheduled election, such as a Holyrood election, to double as a de facto referendum. They could put an outright commitment to independence in their manifestos, and if they win a majority of seats declare that as a mandate to negotiate an independence settlement with the UK Government.
READ MORE: Poll shows there's wide support for ‘Plan B’ path to independence
The beauty of this approach is that there’s no realistic way that the Tories could prevent the vote from taking place – short of abolishing all democratic elections, of course, which would probably be a step too far even for them.
At the start of this year, my ScotGoesPop blog crowdfunded a Panelbase poll that discovered strong public support for the idea of Holyrood pressing ahead with a consultative referendum if Westminster continues to say no.
As part of my new poll this month, I decided to test opinion on the other option of using an election to obtain an outright independence mandate – and the outcome was very similar. With Don’t Knows excluded, around 63% of voters in Scotland support the idea, and only 37% are opposed.
Unsurprisingly, overwhelming majorities of SNP voters, Green voters and people who voted Yes in 2014 are supportive, but there’s also backing to be found in more surprising places. For example, 45% of Labour voters are in favour, and only 35% are opposed.
READ MORE: SNP set for huge Holyrood election win and mandate for indyref2
The fact that polls have now found public approval for both of the main options for circumventing a Westminster veto suggests that the population at large is basically on the same page as independence supporters. They respect the basic democratic principle that Scotland must have a choice on its own future in some form or another, regardless of the feelings of Westminster Tories on the matter.
It also indicates that any fears the SNP leadership might have about a public backlash against acting without Westminster approval are probably misplaced. There’s scope to take bold action as long as voters understand that the purpose is simply to give them a democratic choice that would otherwise be denied them.
It’s important to be clear about what the poll question did and didn’t ask. It did make clear that the election manifestos of pro-indy parties would contain an “outright promise of independence” with the aim of allowing people “to vote for or against the idea”.
But it did not state or imply that a unilateral declaration of independence would follow a successful outcome of the vote. We often hear the straw man argument that support for a “Plan B” on independence is tantamount to support for UDI – but that’s categorically not the case.
The reality is that if a mandate for independence is secured, either via a consultative referendum or an election, it will be for UK ministers to decide whether to respect that mandate. There will be tremendous pressure on them, both domestically and internationally, to at least come to the negotiating table.
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