We need to smash the UK’s Section 30 refusal brick wall

Even if pro-independence parties win a majority of seats, and a majority of the popular vote, the consensus of opinion in Scotland is very firmly that part-time Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson will refuse to co-operate and will turn down a request or a demand for a Section 30 order.

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As results from opinion polls go, this is pretty much up there with asking the Scottish electorate whether they think that Donald Trump is a dangerous idiot, or asking them if they think that Dominic Cummings was right to test his eyesight by taking a drive to Castle Barnard on his wife’s birthday with their wean in the back seat.

You already know what the answer is going to be. The question and its answer are, in other words, simply a re-statement of the obvious. After all, if you have put your head above the parapet four times already, only to have it shot at, it’s merely common sense to believe that should you do so a fifth time that you’re going to get the same result unless you do something else that’s different.

The Scottish Government has already piled up several shiny mandates for another referendum which have been put upon the Holyrood mantelpiece for general admiration but which have all been rejected in turn by Westminster.

Indeed, the better that pro-independence parties, particularly the SNP, do in the next Holyrood election, the greater the Conservative obstinacy to recognise Scottish democracy is going to be

No-one is going to be surprised that Westminster will respond in exactly the same way to the next one. The surprising thing would be if Downing Street were to say “why yes, yes indeed you can have a referendum with our blessing, Scotland”.

The Tories have made a habit of refusing to recognise the mandates granted by the voters in Scottish elections, they’re not about to start now. They’re certainly not about to start in the aftermath of a resounding rejection of opposition to an independence referendum at the polls.

Indeed, the better that pro-independence parties, particularly the SNP, do in the next Holyrood election, the greater the Conservative obstinacy to recognise Scottish democracy is going to be. The more that they fear that they will lose the next independence referendum, the greater the motive they have for ensuring that it doesn’t take place.

The Tories and their enablers in the LibDems and the Labour party branch office in Scotland will simply shift the goalposts and find some other spurious reason for rejecting the new and stronger mandate for another referendum that the Scottish Government will possess. It will be because the constitution is a reserved matter and not a suitable manifesto topic for a Holyrood election.

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Or it will be because a Scotland in Union voodoo poll has shown a majority against independence when people were asked “do you want to live in penury in an authoritarian state where fascism is running rampant?” Although to be honest that’s a good description of the UK right now.

At some point, the Scottish Government is going to have to confront head-on Westminster’s refusal to accept the outcome of Scottish elections – this poll appears to show that the population of Scotland believe that too. Saying that a large majority believe that the British Government will refuse a Section 30 order isn’t the same as saying that a large majority in Scotland will meekly accept that refusal.

There is however a need to be certain that we have support for a different path. Although we may wish it otherwise, the Scotland we live in contains a large number of people who are cautious, conservative with a small-c, who resent thinking about politics, and who are wary of change.

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Yet in order to secure our independence we need to ensure that a significant cohort of the population remains on board with the independence project. The only way to do that is to make sure that there is a solid majority in support of independence and that the various routes to achieving independence are exhausted in turn. The good news, however, is that this poll shows that we’re getting there.

Much as it may displease sections of the independence movement, we need to continue to bang our heads against the brick wall of Downing Street’s refusal to a Section 30 order until a substantial majority understand the futility of it and are persuaded to agree to support an alternative. This poll suggests that we are approaching that point. There is already the expectation of a refusal; what we need to do now is to turn that expectation into support for an alternative.

We’ve come a long way from the days not so long ago when an opinion poll showing majority support for independence was a rare event occasioning huge celebration amongst independence supporters.

A more recent poll over the weekend, this time for Business for Scotland, puts support for independence at 54%. There has been a slow and steady increase in support for independence during 2020. There have been seven polls so far this year asking the standard question about Scottish independence, and all but one have shown there’s majority support.

We’ve come a long way from the days not so long ago when an opinion poll showing majority support for independence was a rare event occasioning huge celebration amongst independence supporters. Now we regularly see opinion polls with a slight majority in support of independence and the response from many independence supporters is “is that all?”.

Majority support for independence is now becoming normal, and the longer that pattern is established, the more it comes to represent the settled will of the people of Scotland. That will help to boost willingness amongst the population for alternative strategies to secure our independence if Westminster continues to refuse a Section 30 order.

The collision between the obstinacy of the Conservatives with the will of the Scottish people is most assuredly coming, and when it does come we must be certain that our will is solid and unyielding. We are on the right path; the path out of the mess and nightmare that the UK has become. The British nationalists have little left but their statues and their desperation. We have the future.