SCOTLAND could eliminate Covid-19 “if it weren’t for England”, according to an analysis piece from an acclaimed scientific publication.
The New Scientist published an article by journalist Michael Marshall which looks into evidence suggesting that while Scotland is weeks away from suppressing the coronavirus, there’s one thing holding the country back – its 154km Border with England.
The article comes after the First Minister failed to rule out imposing quarantine on visitors from the rest of the UK “if it is required from a public health perspective”.
Speaking at the Scottish Government briefing earlier this week, Nicola Sturgeon stressed Scotland’s aim with Covid-19 is to “get as close to elimination as possible” – but warned the UK Government appeared to be “letting it circulate at higher levels”.
READ MORE: Scottish Border: Thousands back travel limitations amid virus fears
This week the city of Leicester was put back into lockdown following a spike in cases which were not immediately visible in publicly available data.
The New Scientist article finds that while England and Scotland began their coronavirus responses closely linked, differences emerged after lockdown was implemented. Pointing to Sturgeon’s creation of a scientific advisory group for Scotland, designed to supplement advice from the UK-wide Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, global public health expert Devi Sridhar (below) says “that’s probably when you started seeing more divergence”.
Marshall then looks at Scotland’s decision to relax lockdown slowly and in a “step-by-step way” to allow for each change’s effects to be measured. Sridhar argues this differed from England’s rapid relaxation.
Scotland’s “relative success” could also be put down to its test and trace system, consistent messaging and the “very high level of trust in the Scottish Government and in Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership”.
Successive polls have indicated that the Scottish, and UK public, have been impressed by the SNP leader’s handling of the pandemic.
Pointing to the current situation, Marshall says Scotland reported just five new virus cases on June 29 out of 815 for the UK as a whole – and also saw no Covid deaths for four days in a row. Sridhar told the publication that “Scotland’s weeks away” from days with no new confirmed cases, while “England’s months away”.
Therefore, the article concludes, Scotland is “unlikely to achieve full elimination in the near future, because it has a 154km Border with England”.
Sridhar explains further: “Many people cross that border every day.
“I think we will probably never get, without England’s cooperation, to full elimination.”
READ MORE: Scottish Border: Row as Carlaw says restrictions would be 'arbitrary'
Yesterday Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw sparked a row after saying he would support localised lockdowns, as seen in Leicester, but that restrictions on UK visitors coming into Scotland would be an “arbitrary measure”.
He argued there should not be “any attempt to close off Scotland from the rest of the UK”, to which Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf accused him of “cognitive dissonance”.
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